Feedback dynamics of the low‐income rental housing market: exploring policy responses to COVID‐19

Abstract The economic impact of COVID‐19 threatened mass housing insecurity undermining the health and financial recovery from the pandemic. Unprecedented federal policy responses halted court‐ordered evictions and injected billions of dollars in rental assistance, but questions remain whether housing interventions adequately accounted for dynamics that drive landlord‐tenant interactions, including accumulations of rental and mortgage arrears, rental unit availability, and low‐income housing options. A system dynamics model probes complex feedback dynamics driving tenant and landlord decision‐making in the low‐income rental housing market pre‐ and postpandemic protections. Feedback loops highlight trade‐offs considered by low‐income tenants and landlords in the context of scarcity and uncertainty. Simulations suggest the eviction moratorium and federal emergency rental assistance prevented a tidal wave of evictions, but rental arrears, overcrowding, and homelessness remain elevated. Failure to address underlying financial hardship and limited affordable housing undermines COVID recovery. © 2023 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.