Efecto crowding out de la política fiscal sobre el sistema financiero centroamericano

The growing tendency of fiscal deficit and internal debt in Central American countries can have negative effects on private sector credits, real interest rates, and products - creating a crowding out effect in the economic activities of the private sector. This investigation explores the effects of fiscal policies - specifically of domestic public debt policies, on private sector credits and on the real interest rates in Central American countries macroeconomics. For this analysis, we used the impulse-response functions of a vector autoregressive model (VAR). Empirical evidence led us to conclude that in Guatemala and Honduras there is indeed a crowding out effect on credits to the private sector, whereas in the case of Costa Rica, there is a crowding in effect on interest rates.