和平与系统性战争之间的过渡是一个有符号网络动力系统的分岔

IF 1.4 Q2 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY
Megan Morrison, J. Nathan Kutz, Michael Gabbay
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要:本文采用复杂系统理论与网络建模和分析相结合的方法,研究了与系统性冲突发生相关的结构特征和过程。我们提出了一个在国家间国际关系背景下的合作和冲突动态的签名网络模型。该模型在结构平衡力和二元比力的作用下演化节点间的联系。模型模拟显示,随着结构平衡压力的增加,从和平到系统性战争出现了急剧的分岔,和平和战争稳定平衡同时存在的双稳态制度,以及从战争到和平的滞后反向分岔。我们展示了我们为和平到战争分叉条件推导的解析表达式如何表明极化网络结构增加了对系统性战争的敏感性。我们开发了一个框架,用于识别最不稳定的关系扰动模式,并将其应用于第一次世界大战之前的欧洲大国网络。我们还表明,该模型表现出临界减速,其中,随着系统接近分岔,对和平平衡的扰动需要更长的时间才能衰减。我们讨论了我们的结果如何与系统性战争的原因和催化剂的国际关系理论联系起来。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Transitions between peace and systemic war as bifurcations in a signed network dynamical system
Abstract We investigate structural features and processes associated with the onset of systemic conflict using an approach which integrates complex systems theory with network modeling and analysis. We present a signed network model of cooperation and conflict dynamics in the context of international relations between states. The model evolves ties between nodes under the influence of a structural balance force and a dyad-specific force. Model simulations exhibit a sharp bifurcation from peace to systemic war as structural balance pressures increase, a bistable regime in which both peace and war stable equilibria exist, and a hysteretic reverse bifurcation from war to peace. We show how the analytical expression we derive for the peace-to-war bifurcation condition implies that polarized network structure increases susceptibility to systemic war. We develop a framework for identifying patterns of relationship perturbations that are most destabilizing and apply it to the network of European great powers before World War I. We also show that the model exhibits critical slowing down, in which perturbations to the peace equilibrium take longer to decay as the system draws closer to the bifurcation. We discuss how our results relate to international relations theories on the causes and catalysts of systemic war.
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来源期刊
Network Science
Network Science SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
5.90%
发文量
24
期刊介绍: Network Science is an important journal for an important discipline - one using the network paradigm, focusing on actors and relational linkages, to inform research, methodology, and applications from many fields across the natural, social, engineering and informational sciences. Given growing understanding of the interconnectedness and globalization of the world, network methods are an increasingly recognized way to research aspects of modern society along with the individuals, organizations, and other actors within it. The discipline is ready for a comprehensive journal, open to papers from all relevant areas. Network Science is a defining work, shaping this discipline. The journal welcomes contributions from researchers in all areas working on network theory, methods, and data.
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