利用水文模型和地球观测在有限数据可用性条件下推断水库填充策略:以大埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝(GERD)为例

IF 5.7 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Awad M. Ali, Lieke A. Melsen, Adriaan J. Teuling
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝(GERD)于2020年开始蓄水,这给苏丹共和国青尼罗河下游的水资源管理带来了额外的挑战,而苏丹共和国已经在努力应对气候变化的影响。许多跨界河流的情况也是如此,在新水坝的填筑和运行过程中,由于缺乏合作和透明度而受到影响。如果没有来自邻国的供水信息,像往常一样管理下游水坝是有风险的,但需要操作信息来实施修改。本研究旨在开发一种新的方法/框架,利用水文建模与遥感数据相结合,在有限的数据可用性条件下检索水库填充策略。首先,利用ARC2、CHIRPS、ERA5、GPCC和persann - cdr 5个降水产品;更多信息见第2.3节)是根据10个站点的历史测量降雨量进行评估的。其次,为了考虑输入的不确定性,利用ERA5的潜在蒸散发和温度数据,将三个表现最好的降雨产品强制纳入HBV-light概念水文模型。该模型于2006年至2019年进行了校准,并于1991年至1996年进行了验证。第三,利用性能较好的参数集(Nash-Sutcliffe效率,NSE大于0.75)预测运营期(2020-2022年)GERD流入。然后,从GERD的水分平衡出发,估算日储水量,并与Landsat和Sentinel图像的储水量进行比较,以评估所选降雨产品的性能和框架的可靠性。最后,与Landsat和Sentinel-derived水库储水量相比,使用最佳CHIRPS模拟方法检索了3年的GERD填充策略,RMSE分别为1.7 ×109和1.52 ×109m3, NSE分别为0.77和0.86。结果发现,GERD储存了2020年7月月流入量的14%;2021年7月的41%;2022年7月和8月分别为37%和32%。每年,GERD在前两个填充阶段保留了年流入量的5.2%和7.4%,在第三阶段保留了12.9%至13.7%。结果还表明,填充策略检索受输入不确定性的影响大于参数不确定性。检索到的GERD储存的每日变化与测量到的流向苏丹共和国的流量允许进一步解释GERD的下游影响。本研究的发现为检索填充策略提供了系统的步骤,这可以作为该领域未来发展的基础,特别是对于数据稀缺的地区。在当地,该分析对苏丹共和国罗塞雷斯和塞纳尔水坝的未来水管理作出了重大贡献。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Inferring reservoir filling strategies under limited-data-availability conditions using hydrological modeling and Earth observations: the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
Abstract. The filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) started in 2020, posing additional challenges for downstream water management in the Blue Nile River in the Republic of the Sudan, which is already struggling to cope with the effects of climate change. This is also the case for many transboundary rivers that are affected by a lack of cooperation and transparency during the filling and operation of new dams. Without information about water supply from neighboring countries, it is risky to manage downstream dams as usual, but operational information is needed to apply modifications. This study aims to develop a novel approach/framework that utilizes hydrological modeling in conjunction with remote-sensing data to retrieve reservoir filling strategies under limited-data-availability conditions. Firstly, five rainfall products (i.e., ARC2, CHIRPS, ERA5, GPCC, and PERSIANN-CDR; see Sect. 2.3 for more information) were evaluated against historical measured rainfall at 10 stations. Secondly, to account for input uncertainty, the three best-performing rainfall products were forced in the conceptual hydrological model HBV-light with potential evapotranspiration and temperature data from ERA5. The model was calibrated during the period from 2006 to 2019 and validated during the period from 1991 to 1996. Thirdly, the parameter sets that obtained very good performance (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE, greater than 0.75) were utilized to predict the inflow of GERD during the operation period (2020–2022). Then, from the water balance of GERD, the daily storage was estimated and compared with the storage derived from Landsat and Sentinel imageries to evaluate the performance of the selected rainfall products and the reliability of the framework. Finally, 3 years of GERD filling strategies was retrieved using the best-performing simulation of CHIRPS with an RMSE of 1.7 ×109 and 1.52 ×109m3 and an NSE of 0.77 and 0.86 when compared with Landsat- and Sentinel-derived reservoir storage, respectively. It was found that GERD stored 14 % of the monthly inflow of July 2020; 41 % of July 2021; and 37 % and 32 % of July and August 2022, respectively. Annually, GERD retained 5.2 % and 7.4 % of the annual inflow in the first two filling phases and between 12.9 % and 13.7 % in the third phase. The results also revealed that the retrieval of filling strategies is more influenced by input uncertainty than parameter uncertainty. The retrieved daily change in GERD storage with the measured outflow to the Republic of the Sudan allowed further interpretation of the downstream impacts of GERD. The findings of this study provide systematic steps to retrieve filling strategies, which can serve as a base for future development in the field, especially for data-scarce regions. Locally, the analysis contributes significantly to the future water management of the Roseires and Sennar dams in the Republic of the Sudan.
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来源期刊
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
10.10
自引率
7.90%
发文量
273
审稿时长
15 months
期刊介绍: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS) is a not-for-profit international two-stage open-access journal for the publication of original research in hydrology. HESS encourages and supports fundamental and applied research that advances the understanding of hydrological systems, their role in providing water for ecosystems and society, and the role of the water cycle in the functioning of the Earth system. A multi-disciplinary approach is encouraged that broadens the hydrological perspective and the advancement of hydrological science through integration with other cognate sciences and cross-fertilization across disciplinary boundaries.
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