第一波新冠肺炎疫情对封锁对公共卫生和经济增长的不同影响的研究结果

IF 3 Q1 ECONOMICS
Bilal Kargı, Mario Coccia, Bekir Cihan Uçkaç
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文考察了在第一波新冠肺炎大流行期间,不同国家封锁措施的持续时间对各国公共卫生和经济状况的影响。结果表明,a)封锁期较短(约15天)的国家确诊病例/人口(%)的变化高于封锁期较长(超过一个月)的国家;B)与封城期较长的国家相比,封城期较短的国家的平均死亡率较低,而死亡率的差异表明,封城期较长的国家的死亡率下降幅度更大。然而,该研究的结果表明,虽然政府为应对COVID-19大流行而实施的更长时间的国家封锁在公共卫生方面似乎产生了一些不确定的结果,但它们对一个国家的经济增长表现出更大的不利影响,导致国内生产总值增长收缩。从这项研究中汲取关键经验教训,对于制定有效的公众应对措施,以应对未来的COVID-19浪潮和类似COVID-19特征的流行病,将是非常宝贵的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Findings from the first wave of Covid-19 on the different impacts of lockdown on public health and economic growth
This paper examines the impact of different durations of national lockdown measures during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on the public health and economic conditions of nations. Results indicate that a) countries with shorter lockdown periods, approximately 15 days, experience a higher variation of confirmed cases/population (%) compared to countries with longer lockdowns, lasting for over one month; b) countries with shorter lockdown periods experience lower average fatality rates compared to countries with longer lockdown periods, while the variation in fatality rates indicates that countries with longer periods of lockdown achieved a more substantial reduction in fatality rates. Nevertheless, the findings of the study indicate that while longer durations of national lockdowns, implemented as a government response to the COVID-19 pandemic, appear to produce somewhat uncertain outcomes in terms of public health, they exhibit a more substantial adverse effect on a country’s economic growth, resulting in a contraction in gross domestic product growth. Extracting key lessons from this study can prove invaluable in crafting effective public responses for future COVID-19 waves and epidemics that resemble the characteristics of COVID-19.
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