Heat-wave associated vibriosis in Russia, 2003-2021

Objectives: Noteworthy peaks of non-cholera vibriosis occurred in Russia’s Rostov and Volgograd regions in 2007 and 2010. The origins of these emergent vibrio cases have not been fully understood. Here, we investigate a possible link between the heat wave event and disease emergence. Methods: This study employed Pearson correlation and regression analyses to identify the linkage between ambient temperature and Vibrio cases. Results: The correlation test between the mean summer air temperatures for both regions and the Vibrio-infectious cases per year, shows a significant correlation between the mean summer temperature and the infection: r= 0.62 (p=0.023) for the Rostov region and r = 0.78 (p=0.012) for the Volgograd region. Conclusion: The heat waves in the summers of 2007 and 2010 suggest having facilitated the upsurge of V. cholerae non-cholera diseases. The warming tendency has to be considered in predicting outbreaks. Keywords: Global warming, vibrio infections, Vibrio, Russia