如何处理专业预测人员调查中缺失的观测结果

IF 1.4 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS
Constantin Rudolf Salomo Bürgi
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引用次数: 1

摘要

调查预测容易受到预测者的进入和退出以及预测者不贡献每个时期导致差距的影响。这些差距使得很难对单个预测者进行相互比较,并提出了如何处理缺失观测值的问题。这是针对美国的GDP、CPI、通胀和失业率等变量的。推导了理论上最优的填补缺失观测值的方法,并与几种竞争方法进行了比较。结果发现,不填写缺失的观测值和取之前的值并不能很好地执行。对于评估的其他方法,对于所有用例没有明确的优越方法,但是理论上最优的方法通常执行得相当好。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How to deal with missing observations in surveys of professional forecasters
Survey forecasts are prone to entry and exit of forecasters as well as forecasters not contributing every period leading to gaps. These gaps make it difficult to compare individual forecasters to each other and raises the question of how to deal with the missing observations. This is addressed for the variables GDP, CPI inflation, and unemployment for the US. The theoretically optimal method of filling in missing observations is derived and compared to several competing methods. It is found that not filling in missing observations and taking the previous value do not perform particularly well. For the other methods assessed, there is no clear superior approach for all use cases, but the theoretically optimal one usually performs quite well.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
57
审稿时长
40 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Applied Economics publishes papers which make a significant and original contribution to applied issues in micro and macroeconomics. The primary criteria for selecting papers are quality and importance for the field. Papers based on a meaningful and well-motivated research problem that make a concrete contribution to empirical economics or applied theory, in any of its fields, are especially encouraged. The wide variety of topics that are covered in the Journal of Applied Economics include: -Industrial Organization -International Economics -Labour Economics -Finance -Money and Banking -Growth -Public Finance -Political Economy -Law and Economics -Environmental Economics
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