{"title":"如何处理专业预测人员调查中缺失的观测结果","authors":"Constantin Rudolf Salomo Bürgi","doi":"10.1080/15140326.2023.2185975","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Survey forecasts are prone to entry and exit of forecasters as well as forecasters not contributing every period leading to gaps. These gaps make it difficult to compare individual forecasters to each other and raises the question of how to deal with the missing observations. This is addressed for the variables GDP, CPI inflation, and unemployment for the US. The theoretically optimal method of filling in missing observations is derived and compared to several competing methods. It is found that not filling in missing observations and taking the previous value do not perform particularly well. For the other methods assessed, there is no clear superior approach for all use cases, but the theoretically optimal one usually performs quite well.","PeriodicalId":51747,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"How to deal with missing observations in surveys of professional forecasters\",\"authors\":\"Constantin Rudolf Salomo Bürgi\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/15140326.2023.2185975\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Survey forecasts are prone to entry and exit of forecasters as well as forecasters not contributing every period leading to gaps. These gaps make it difficult to compare individual forecasters to each other and raises the question of how to deal with the missing observations. This is addressed for the variables GDP, CPI inflation, and unemployment for the US. The theoretically optimal method of filling in missing observations is derived and compared to several competing methods. It is found that not filling in missing observations and taking the previous value do not perform particularly well. For the other methods assessed, there is no clear superior approach for all use cases, but the theoretically optimal one usually performs quite well.\",\"PeriodicalId\":51747,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Applied Economics\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-03-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Applied Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2023.2185975\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Applied Economics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2023.2185975","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
How to deal with missing observations in surveys of professional forecasters
Survey forecasts are prone to entry and exit of forecasters as well as forecasters not contributing every period leading to gaps. These gaps make it difficult to compare individual forecasters to each other and raises the question of how to deal with the missing observations. This is addressed for the variables GDP, CPI inflation, and unemployment for the US. The theoretically optimal method of filling in missing observations is derived and compared to several competing methods. It is found that not filling in missing observations and taking the previous value do not perform particularly well. For the other methods assessed, there is no clear superior approach for all use cases, but the theoretically optimal one usually performs quite well.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Applied Economics publishes papers which make a significant and original contribution to applied issues in micro and macroeconomics. The primary criteria for selecting papers are quality and importance for the field. Papers based on a meaningful and well-motivated research problem that make a concrete contribution to empirical economics or applied theory, in any of its fields, are especially encouraged. The wide variety of topics that are covered in the Journal of Applied Economics include: -Industrial Organization -International Economics -Labour Economics -Finance -Money and Banking -Growth -Public Finance -Political Economy -Law and Economics -Environmental Economics