人类安全的智能:定量测量结果

IF 0.8 3区社会学 Q1 HISTORY

Intelligence and National Security Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI:10.1080/02684527.2023.2250478

Steven Stottlemyre

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文探讨了情报能力的提高是否会改善全球安全，这是情报理论的一个关键假设。本研究采用偏最小二乘结构方程建模方法，对美国国际情报行为数据集和全球恐怖主义数据库中的数据进行统计分析。该研究以情报研究和国际关系理论为基础，整合了建构主义的人类安全框架。令人惊讶的是，研究结果显示，情报能力的提高与恐怖主义程度之间存在显著的相关性，这表明情报可能会破坏而不是增强人类的安全。这一发现挑战了传统的假设，但由于潜在的内生性，必须谨慎看待。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Intelligence for human security: measuring outcomes quantitatively

This article examines whether increased intelligence capacity improves global security, a key assumption in intelligence theory. Using the partial least squares structural equation modelling method, the research statistically analyzes data from the U.S. International Intelligence Behaviour dataset and Global Terrorism Database. Grounded in intelligence studies and international relations theory, the study integrates a constructivist human security framework. Surprisingly, the results show a significant correlation between increased intelligence capacity and the degree of terrorism, suggesting intelligence may undermine rather than enhance human security. This finding challenges traditional assumptions, though it must be viewed cautiously due to potential endogeneity.

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来源期刊

Intelligence and National Security Multiple-

CiteScore

1.80

自引率

41.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： Intelligence has never played a more prominent role in international politics than it does now in the early years of the twenty-first century. National intelligence services are larger than ever, and they are more transparent in their activities in the policy making of democratic nations. Intelligence and National Security is widely regarded as the world''s leading scholarly journal focused on the role of intelligence and secretive agencies in international relations. It examines this aspect of national security from a variety of perspectives and academic disciplines, with insightful articles research and written by leading experts based around the globe. Among the topics covered in the journal are: • the historical development of intelligence agencies • representations of intelligence in popular culture • public understandings and expectations related to intelligence • intelligence and ethics • intelligence collection and analysis • covert action and counterintelligence • privacy and intelligence accountability • the outsourcing of intelligence operations • the role of politics in intelligence activities • international intelligence cooperation and burden-sharing • the relationships among intelligence agencies, military organizations, and civilian policy departments. Authors for Intelligence and National Security come from a range of disciplines, including international affairs, history, sociology, political science, law, anthropology, philosophy, medicine, statistics, psychology, bio-sciences, and mathematics. These perspectives are regularly augmented by research submitted from current and former intelligence practitioners in several different nations. Each issue features a rich menu of articles about the uses (and occasional misuses) of intelligence, supplemented from time to time with special forums on current intelligence issues and interviews with leading intelligence officials.