中国是否存在数字科技泡沫?

IF 4.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Technological and Economic Development of Economy Pub Date : 2023-10-11 DOI:10.3846/tede.2023.19417

Meng Qin, Chi-Wei Su, Lianhong Qiu, Oana-Ramona Lobonţ

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文采用广义最优增广Dickey-Fuller (GSADF)方法来探讨中国是否存在数字科技泡沫。实证结果表明，数字科技存在多重泡沫，且大多伴随着过度上涨。然而，自2016年以来，数字科技泡沫的出现得到了遏制，主要原因是相关领域的监管日益成熟。此外，不同数字技术在同一时期的泡沫相似，这可以归因于它们之间的密切关系。此外，我们进一步研究了影响爆炸行为的因素，发现中国股市对数字科技泡沫有积极影响，而经济政策的不确定性和情况对这种爆炸行为有消极影响。在新一轮科技革命和产业转型背景下，对数字科技产业潜在泡沫持适度谨慎态度，为实现“数字中国”建设目标提供了有价值的启示。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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ARE THERE DIGITAL TECH BUBBLES IN CHINA?

This exploration employs the generalized supremum augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) approach to explore whether there are digital tech bubbles in China. The empirical results suggest the existence of multiple digital tech bubbles, which are mostly accompanied by an excessive rise. However, the appearance of digital tech bubbles is curbed since 2016, mainly due to the increasing mature regulations in relevant fields. Besides, bubbles in different digital technologies are similar during the same period, which could be attributed to the close relationships among them. Additionally, we further investigate the factors influencing the explosive behaviours, and find that the Chinese stock market positively affects digital tech bubbles, while economic policy uncertainties and situations negatively influence such explosive behaviors. In the context of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, these conclusions provide valuable implications to achieve the target of constructing a “Digital China” by becoming moderately cautious about potential bubbles in the digital tech industry.

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来源期刊

Technological and Economic Development of Economy ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

10.00

自引率

8.50%

发文量

审稿时长

15 weeks

期刊介绍： Technological and Economic Development of Economy is a refereed journal that publishes original research and review articles and book reviews. The Journal is designed for publishing articles in the following fields of research: systems for sustainable development, policy on sustainable development, legislation on sustainable development, strategies, approaches and methods for sustainable development, visions and scenarios for the future, education for sustainable development, institutional change and sustainable development, health care and sustainable development, alternative economic paradigms for sustainable development, partnership in the field of sustainable development, industry and sustainable development, sustainable development challenges to business and management, technological changes and sustainable development, social aspects of sustainability, economic dimensions of sustainability, political dimensions of sustainability, innovations, life cycle design and assessment, ethics and sustainability, sustainable design and material selection, assessment of environmental impact, ecology and sustainability, application case studies, best practices, decision making theory, models of operations research, theory and practice of operations research, statistics, optimization, simulation. All papers to be published in Technological and Economic Development of Economy are peer reviewed by two appointed experts. The Journal is published quarterly, in March, June, September and December.