nba赛程的不公平

Pub Date : 2023-03-23 DOI:10.3233/jsa-220629
R. Alan Bowman, Oskar Harmon, Thomas Ashman
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引用次数: 0

摘要

日程安排方面的因素,如客队背靠背与休息的主队比赛,会影响球队在那场比赛中的获胜概率,并可能在整个赛季中对球队产生不均衡的影响。本研究调查了2000-01赛季至2018-19赛季NBA赛程的不平等。所谓赛程不平等,我们指的是除了对手之外的一系列赛程因素对球队成功的影响,以及这些影响在不同球队之间的差异。我们使用逻辑回归模型和蒙特卡罗模拟来识别影响主队在每场比赛中获胜概率的赛程因素变量(参加比赛的球队是控制变量),并构建赛程不公平度量。我们评估了每个NBA赛季的这些指标,随着时间的推移,这些指标的趋势,以及减少赛程不平等的广泛规范方法的潜在有效性。我们发现,尽管时间安排的公平性随着时间的推移而改善,但时间安排的差异不成比例地影响团队成功的衡量标准。此外,我们发现平衡跨团队的进度变量的频率比减少总频率是一种更有效的减轻进度不平等的方法,尽管结合这两种方法是最有效的策略。
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Schedule inequity in the National Basketball Association
Scheduling factors such as a visiting team playing a game back-to-back against a rested home team can affect the win probability of the teams for that game and potentially affect teams unevenly throughout the season. This study examines schedule inequity in the National Basketball Association (NBA) for the seasons 2000–01 through 2018–19. By schedule inequity, we mean the effect of a comprehensive set of schedule factors, other than opponents, on team success and how much these effects differ across teams. We use a logistic regression model and Monte Carlo simulations to identify schedule factor variables that influence the probability of the home team winning in each game (the teams playing are control variables) and construct schedule inequity measures. We evaluate these measures for each NBA season, trends in the measures over time, and the potential effectiveness of broad prescriptive approaches to reduce schedule inequity. We find that, although schedule equity has improved over time, schedule differences disproportionately affect team success measures. Moreover, we find that balancing the frequency of schedule variables across teams is a more effective method of mitigating schedule inequity than reducing the total frequency, although combining both methods is the most effective strategy.
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