Jiarui Xu, Fengshan Jiang, Zhiqiang Xie, Guofang Wang
{"title":"基于故障树构建的高后果区长输站安全运行风险评估方法——以中缅天然气管道分站为例","authors":"Jiarui Xu, Fengshan Jiang, Zhiqiang Xie, Guofang Wang","doi":"10.1061/ajrua6.rueng-960","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The safe operation of natural gas long-distance pipeline stations is the critical link for its sustainable transmission. Therefore, station operation risk assessment and space-time expression in high consequence areas have become a critical problem that must be urgently addressed. The conventional way to assess the probability of gas pipeline failure cannot meet the requirements of the natural gas operating companies for the safety assessment of natural gas stations. Taking the example of the China–Myanmar natural gas pipeline branch station, based on the fuzzy fault tree model (FFT), a comprehensive pipeline safety evaluation method (CPSE-FFT) has been introduced, which evaluates the risk factor of pipeline operation in the station area and the social security risk brought by it. In this case study, the method is applied to a branch station of the China–Myanmar long-distance pipeline. In the results, the probability of pipeline accidents in the area of the station is 5.79×10−4 times/year, and six buildings with higher risk levels among the 37 buildings are also exposed on the risk distribution map. The overall social risk level is also expressed. CPSE-FFT is a practical, reasonable, and accurate assessment method that can quantitatively reflect the risks posed by the safe operation of natural gas stations. This method is suitable for most natural gas station risk assessments. The results of the risk assessment provide a reference for managers and decision-makers to reduce the risk of natural gas stations.","PeriodicalId":48571,"journal":{"name":"Asce-Asme Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems Part A-Civil Engineering","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Risk Assessment Method for the Safe Operation of Long-Distance Pipeline Stations in High-Consequence Areas Based on Fault Tree Construction: Case Study of China–Myanmar Natural Gas Pipeline Branch Station\",\"authors\":\"Jiarui Xu, Fengshan Jiang, Zhiqiang Xie, Guofang Wang\",\"doi\":\"10.1061/ajrua6.rueng-960\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The safe operation of natural gas long-distance pipeline stations is the critical link for its sustainable transmission. Therefore, station operation risk assessment and space-time expression in high consequence areas have become a critical problem that must be urgently addressed. The conventional way to assess the probability of gas pipeline failure cannot meet the requirements of the natural gas operating companies for the safety assessment of natural gas stations. Taking the example of the China–Myanmar natural gas pipeline branch station, based on the fuzzy fault tree model (FFT), a comprehensive pipeline safety evaluation method (CPSE-FFT) has been introduced, which evaluates the risk factor of pipeline operation in the station area and the social security risk brought by it. In this case study, the method is applied to a branch station of the China–Myanmar long-distance pipeline. In the results, the probability of pipeline accidents in the area of the station is 5.79×10−4 times/year, and six buildings with higher risk levels among the 37 buildings are also exposed on the risk distribution map. The overall social risk level is also expressed. CPSE-FFT is a practical, reasonable, and accurate assessment method that can quantitatively reflect the risks posed by the safe operation of natural gas stations. This method is suitable for most natural gas station risk assessments. 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Risk Assessment Method for the Safe Operation of Long-Distance Pipeline Stations in High-Consequence Areas Based on Fault Tree Construction: Case Study of China–Myanmar Natural Gas Pipeline Branch Station
The safe operation of natural gas long-distance pipeline stations is the critical link for its sustainable transmission. Therefore, station operation risk assessment and space-time expression in high consequence areas have become a critical problem that must be urgently addressed. The conventional way to assess the probability of gas pipeline failure cannot meet the requirements of the natural gas operating companies for the safety assessment of natural gas stations. Taking the example of the China–Myanmar natural gas pipeline branch station, based on the fuzzy fault tree model (FFT), a comprehensive pipeline safety evaluation method (CPSE-FFT) has been introduced, which evaluates the risk factor of pipeline operation in the station area and the social security risk brought by it. In this case study, the method is applied to a branch station of the China–Myanmar long-distance pipeline. In the results, the probability of pipeline accidents in the area of the station is 5.79×10−4 times/year, and six buildings with higher risk levels among the 37 buildings are also exposed on the risk distribution map. The overall social risk level is also expressed. CPSE-FFT is a practical, reasonable, and accurate assessment method that can quantitatively reflect the risks posed by the safe operation of natural gas stations. This method is suitable for most natural gas station risk assessments. The results of the risk assessment provide a reference for managers and decision-makers to reduce the risk of natural gas stations.
期刊介绍:
The journal will meet the needs of the researchers and engineers to address risk, disaster and failure-related challenges due to many sources and types of uncertainty in planning, design, analysis, construction, manufacturing, operation, utilization, and life-cycle management of existing and new engineering systems. Challenges abound due to increasing complexity of engineering systems, new materials and concepts, and emerging hazards (both natural and human caused). The journal will serve as a medium for dissemination of research findings, best practices and concerns, and for the discussion and debate on risk and uncertainty related issues. The journal will report on the full range of risk and uncertainty analysis state-of-the-art and state-of-the-practice relating to civil and mechanical engineering including but not limited to:
• Risk quantification based on hazard identification,
• Scenario development and rate quantification,
• Consequence assessment,
• Valuations, perception, and communication,
• Risk-informed decision making,
• Uncertainty analysis and modeling,
• Other related areas.
Part A of the journal, published by the American Society of Civil Engineers, will focus on the civil engineering aspects of these topics. Part B will be published by the American Society of Mechanical Engineers focusing on mechanical engineering.