汇率预期与出口:来自中国的确凿证据

IF 1 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Review of International Economics Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI:10.1111/roie.12709

Xiaohua Bao, Hailiang Huang, Larry D. Qiu, Xiaozhuo Wang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

汇率影响出口的观点是众所周知的。然而，出口商是否会对汇率预期做出反应尚不得而知。因此，在本研究中，我们基于Factiva数据库中的新闻文章构建了汇率预期的度量。我们使用机器学习来识别和分类关于人民币(RMB，中国货币)升值的新闻文章。我们的实证估计表明，从2000年到2006年，中国企业减少了出口，以应对更高的人民币升值预期。他们把销售从出口转向国内市场。在低生产率企业、国有企业、加工贸易和最终产品贸易中，这种反应更大。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Exchange rate expectations and exports: Firm‐level evidence from China

Abstract The notion that the exchange rate affects exports is well understood. However, whether exporters respond to the expectations of the exchange rate is unknown. Hence, in this study, we construct a measure of exchange rate expectations based on news articles from the Factiva database. We use machine learning to identify and classify news articles about the appreciation of the renminbi (RMB, Chinese currency). Our empirical estimation shows that from 2000 to 2006, Chinese firms reduced their exports in response to a higher expectation of RMB appreciation. They switched their sales from export to domestic markets. The responses are larger in low‐productivity firms, state‐owned enterprises, processing trade, and final goods trade.

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来源期刊

Review of International Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Review of International Economics is devoted to the publication of high-quality articles on a full range of topics in international economics. The Review comprises controversial and innovative thought and detailed contributions from other directly related fields such as economic development; trade and the environment; and political economy. Whether theoretical, empirical or policy-oriented, its relevance to real world problems is of paramount concern.