从复杂性的角度模拟北极航运系统弹性演变的方法

IF 3.7 3区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Maritime Policy & Management Pub Date : 2023-03-10 DOI:10.1080/03088839.2023.2187472

Yang Liu, Xiaoxue Ma, Weiliang Qiao, Bing Han

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在本研究中引入弹性理论来模拟北极航运系统抵御各种风险的能力。为此，提出了一种整合贝叶斯网络(BN)、系统动力学(SD)和耗散结构的新方法来定量描述北极航运系统的动态弹性。模拟了系统弹性随时间的演化过程，在此基础上，结合触发条件、优先级和驱动力三个方面，通过图形化结果和讨论揭示了系统弹性的动态演化机制。总体而言，所提出的弹性演化模型适用于具有不确定性和非线性的复杂系统，结果表明，所提出的方法有助于制定未来的战略和决策，以保证北极航运的安全。

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A methodology to model the evolution of system resilience for Arctic shipping from the perspective of complexity

Resilience theory is introduced in the present study to model the capability of the Arctic shipping system to defend against various risks. For this purpose, a novel methodology integrating a Bayesian network (BN), system dynamics (SD), and dissipative structure is proposed to quantitatively describe the dynamic resilience of the Arctic shipping system. The evolution of the system resilience with time is simulated, based on which the graphical results and discussion are devoted to revealing the dynamic evolution mechanism by integrating the three aspects of triggering conditions, priorities, and driving forces. Overall, the proposed resilience evolution model is suitable for complex systems with uncertainty and nonlinearity, and the results show that the proposed methodology can contribute to formulating future strategies and decisions to guarantee the safety of Arctic shipping.

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来源期刊

Maritime Policy & Management TRANSPORTATION-

CiteScore

8.20

自引率

8.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： Thirty years ago maritime management decisions were taken on the basis of experience and hunch. Today, the experience is augmented by expert analysis and informed by research findings. Maritime Policy & Management provides the latest findings and analyses, and the opportunity for exchanging views through its Comment Section. A multi-disciplinary and international refereed journal, it brings together papers on the different topics that concern the maritime industry. Emphasis is placed on business, organizational, economic, sociolegal and management topics at port, community, shipping company and shipboard levels. The Journal also provides details of conferences and book reviews.