Criminal justice involvement, transition to fatherhood, and the demographic foundation of the intergenerational transmission of crime

Most analyses of the intergenerational transmission of criminal justice contacts compare outcomes of the second generation to the criminal history of the first generation. Ignoring the demographic process underlying transmission introduces selection bias into estimates insofar as the first generation's criminal history affects the family formation and the probability of parenthood. I study how differential selection into fatherhood across criminal histories may affect prospective transmission of criminal justice convictions. I use administrative data on the complete fertility patterns and criminal justice history all Danish men born during 1965–1973 and retrospective odds-ratio estimates of intergenerational transmission of criminal justice contacts to estimate prospective transmission of crime and the impact of differential fertility on cohort criminal justice involvement. Seriousness of criminal justice involvement is associated with earlier transition to fatherhood but ultimately higher levels of childlessness. The findings suggest that the existing retrospective estimates of the intergenerational transmission of criminal justice contacts overestimate the population level dynastic transmission. Ignoring differential fertility across criminal justice history leads to upward-biased estimates of how criminal justice involvement is maintained across generations when using retrospective sources. Population-level description of fertility trends has substantial implication for theoretical understanding of how transmission of offending occurs at the population level.