关于不确定性，什么是确定的?

IF 11.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Literature Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI:10.1257/jel.20211645

Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Cisil Sarisoy, Juan M. Londono, Bo Sun, Deepa D. Datta, Thiago Ferreira, Olesya Grishchenko, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Francesca Loria, Sai Ma, Marius Rodriguez, Ilknur Zer, John Rogers

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引用次数: 7

摘要

本文提供了对不确定性、风险和波动性的现有度量的全面调查，并指出了它们在概念上的区别。它总结了它们是如何构建的，它们在使用中的相对优势，以及它们对金融市场和经济结果的影响。这些指标根据构建方法分为四类:基于新闻的、基于调查的、基于计量经济学的和基于市场的。虽然不确定性的增加通常与负面的实际和财务结果有关，但这些影响的程度和对传播渠道的解释在很大程度上取决于识别方面的考虑。(凝胶c83, d81, e10, e52, e60, f10, g10)

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What is Certain about Uncertainty?

This paper provides a comprehensive survey of existing measures of uncertainty, risk, and volatility, noting their conceptual distinctions. It summarizes how they are constructed, their relative advantages in usage, and their effects on financial market and economic outcomes. The measures are divided into four categories based on the construction methodology: news-based, survey-based, econometric-based, and market-based measures. While heightened uncertainty is typically associated with negative real and financial outcomes, the magnitude of these effects and the interpretation of transmission channels crucially depend on identification considerations.(JEL C83, D81, E10, E52, E60, F10, G10)

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来源期刊

Journal of Economic Literature ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

17.80

自引率

0.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： Commencing in 1969, the Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) serves as a vital resource for economists, offering a means to stay informed about the extensive literature in the field. Each JEL issue features commissioned, peer-reviewed survey and review articles, book reviews, an annotated bibliography categorizing new books by subject, and an annual index of dissertations from North American universities.