Applying geostatistical hotspot analyses to a ‘double-invaded’ plant–pest co-occurrence scenario

Summary Invasive alien species represent a multifaceted management problem in terms of threats to biodiversity and ecosystems and their impacts on agriculture and human well-being. Ambrosia artemisiifolia is an invasive alien plant in Europe that affects the human population as its already highly allergenic pollen can interact with air pollutants, resulting in detrimental effects on health. In this context, the invasive beetle Ophraella communa was proposed as a biocontrol agent of A. artemisiifolia , as it feeds on its leaves, leading to a decrease in pollen production. This paper takes advantage of the different co-occurrence classes obtained by the ecological niche models inferred for both of these species based on current and future climatic conditions. We integrate them with spatial data regarding major air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide and fine particulate matter). We couple this information with European human population density data at a narrow territorial scale to infer current and future statistically significant hotspots of health risk. The Netherlands and the UK host the widest hotspots within their national territory for both current (7.09% and 3.54%, respectively) and future (15.04% and 6.70%, respectively) scenarios. Considering the alarming results obtained for some areas, the monitoring and biocontrol of A. artemisiifolia should be applied as a European strategy.