Three scenarios for tree species composition and stand age in new and permanent forest areas: A case study of Latvia

Land abandonment and the emergence of new forest areas create novel dynamics for forest ecosystems and landscapes. Modelling is often used to forecast tree species composition, age group distribution and spatial patterns in the future. The aim of this study was to develop three scenarios for changes in tree species composition, stand age distribution and spatial patterns of new forest areas and permanent forests using Latvia as a case study. We selected 19 study areas of the size 10 km × 10 km to sample the variety of forest cover patterns, tree species, and stand age. Using GIS tools, we developed three scenarios: baseline, commercial and conservation. Results showed that the conservation scenario resulted in the most even-aged group distribution. Scenarios predicted the increase of Picea abies area (reaching 29.3% in permanent forests and even 45.7% in new forests) and the reduction of Pinus sylvestris in most cases. Changes in the median patch area were the best indicator for evaluation of different scenarios with the largest patches of new forest areas for the conservation scenario (1.92 ±Â 1.23 ha). The existing structural and compositional integrity of sampled forest landscapes was best retained under the baseline and conservation scenarios, while the commercial scenario indicated more fragmented forest landscapes in the future.