利用ADAPT - WSA对1rs太阳风连通性的集合预报

IF 3.8 2区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS
D. E. da Silva, S. Wallace, C. N. Arge, S. Jones
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引用次数: 0

摘要

到达太阳系中任何位置的太阳风,原则上都与太阳等离子体从单一源位置流出有关。这个源位置,本身通常是一个更大的日冕洞的一部分,沿着太阳磁场可以追溯到1rs,其中从1rs到日球层某个位置的整个路径被称为太阳风连系。虽然不能直接测量,但近地太阳风之间的连通性对空间天气特别重要。利用近太阳磁场模型和行星际太阳风模型可以得到太阳风的太阳源区域。在本文中,我们提出了一种对连通性进行整体预测的方法,该方法以概率分布的形式呈现,该概率分布是由空军数据同化光球通量输送-王希利大(ADAPT - WSA)联合模型的单个预测的加权集合获得的。ADAPT模型利用通量输运物理和持续数据同化过程,从同步磁图数据推导出光球磁场。WSA模型使用一组耦合的势场型模型来推导日冕磁场,并使用经验关系来推导在地球观测到的终端太阳风速度。我们的方法产生了一个任意的二维概率分布,能够反映复杂的源配置,对分布结构的假设最少,以计算效率高的方式制备。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Ensemble Forecasts of Solar Wind Connectivity to 1 Rs Using ADAPT‐WSA
Abstract The solar wind which arrives at any location in the solar system is, in principle, relatable to the outflow of solar plasma from a single source location. This source location, itself usually being part of a larger coronal hole, is traceable to 1 R S along the Sun's magnetic field, in which the entire path from 1 R S to a location in the heliosphere is referred to as the solar wind connectivity. While not directly measurable, the connectivity between the near‐Earth solar wind is of particular importance to space weather. The solar wind solar source region can be obtained by leveraging near‐sun magnetic field models and a model of the interplanetary solar wind. In this article, we present a method for making an ensemble forecast of the connectivity presented as a probability distribution obtained from a weighted collection of individual forecasts from the combined Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport‐Wang Sheeley Arge (ADAPT‐WSA) model. The ADAPT model derives the photospheric magnetic field from synchronic magnetogram data, using flux transport physics and ongoing data assimilation processes. The WSA model uses a coupled set of potential field type models to derive the coronal magnetic field, and an empirical relationship to derive the terminal solar wind speed observed at Earth. Our method produces an arbitrary 2D probability distribution capable of reflecting complex source configurations with minimal assumptions about the distribution structure, prepared in a computationally efficient manner.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.90
自引率
29.70%
发文量
166
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications (SWE) is devoted to understanding and forecasting space weather. The scope of understanding and forecasting includes: origins, propagation and interactions of solar-produced processes within geospace; interactions in Earth’s space-atmosphere interface region produced by disturbances from above and below; influences of cosmic rays on humans, hardware, and signals; and comparisons of these types of interactions and influences with the atmospheres of neighboring planets and Earth’s moon. Manuscripts should emphasize impacts on technical systems including telecommunications, transportation, electric power, satellite navigation, avionics/spacecraft design and operations, human spaceflight, and other systems. Manuscripts that describe models or space environment climatology should clearly state how the results can be applied.
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