信息和通信技术对经济增长的影响:以欧洲国家为例

Tamerlan MASHADİHASANLİ, Haluk ZÜLFİKAR
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摘要

本文研究了2001-2021年间35个欧洲国家的信息和通信技术对经济增长的影响。随着信息和通信技术的快速发展,了解其对经济增长的影响对政策制定者和研究人员来说都是势在必行的。本研究利用综合数据集,运用系统广义矩量法,运用严谨的计量经济学方法,分析了信息通信技术指标与经济增长指标之间的关系。根据Levin-Lin-Chu单位根检验,除TEL在I(1)水平平稳外,其他变量在I(0)水平均平稳。根据两步系统广义矩估计方法的结果,滞后GDP、电话线路、移动使用和互联网使用正向影响GDP,尽管消费者价格指数、贸易和最终消费支出负向影响GDP。从影响的显著性来看,滞后的GDP、消费者价格指数、最终消费支出和移动使用的影响显著,而贸易、电话线和互联网使用的影响不显著。Arellano-Bond检验表明不存在自相关,Sargan和Hansen检验结果表明模型中的工具变量是合适的和一致的,模型不存在物种形成误差。从结果可以得出结论,信息和通信技术对35个选定的欧洲国家的经济增长产生了积极的影响。这些发现有力地证实了一个理论假设,即信息和通信技术现在是确保经济发展和长期高增长的关键战略方面。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Impact of Information and Communication Technologies on Economic Growth: The Case of Selected European Countries
This paper investigates the impact of information and communication technologies on economic growth in 35 selected European countries during 2001-2021. With rapid advancements in information and communication technologies, understanding its influence on economic growth becomes imperative for policymakers and researchers alike. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset, this study employs rigorous econometric techniques to analyze the relationship between information and communication technologies indicators and economic growth indicators by applying system generalized method of moments method. According to the Levin–Lin–Chu unit root test, all variables are stationary at the I (0) level except TEL which is stationary at the I (1) level. According to the results of the two-step system generalized method of moments estimator, lagged GDP, telephone lines, mobile use, and internet usage positively affected GDP, although consumer price index, trade and final consumption expenditure affected negatively. In terms of significance of the effects, the effect of lagged GDP, consumer price index, final consumption expenditure and mobile use was significant, whereas the effect of trade, telephone lines and internet usage were not significant. The Arellano-Bond test showed that there is no autocorrelation, and according to the Sargan and Hansen tests results, the instrumental variables are appropriate and consistent in the model and the model has no speciation errors. From the results it can be concluded that information and communication technologies positively affected economic growth in 35 selected European countries. These findings strongly confirm the theoretical assumption that information and communication technologies are now a critical strategic aspect in assuring economic development and high long-term growth.
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