Estimating the Potential Effect of Climate Change on Rice Yield in India by Considering the Combined Effects of Temperature and Rainfall

Background: Rising seasonal temperatures are associated with losses in most areas. Climate change is predicted to have an influence on cold-climate locations as well. In both the short and long term, agricultural production suffers marginal losses. This research analyses the long-term association as well as the short-term dynamics between rice yields and climatic variables, namely maximum and lowest temperature as well as rainfall. Methods: This study used time-series data of India from 1991 to 2020 in India. By using the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag Regression or ARDL bounds testing technique for co-integration analysis. Result: The study demonstrates that the variables do have a long-term connection with one another. According to the data, rainfall significantly impacts the amount of rice produced. Rice yields and rainfall have been shown to have a particular connection that is unidirectional, positive and substantial; however, this relationship only goes one way. Rice yields grow by 1.58 per cent for every millimeter when the amount of rainfall increases. Because of the impact of temperature on rice harvests and the increasing vulnerability of the rice crop to climate change, agricultural experts need to concentrate their efforts on studying and creating temperature-tolerant rice varieties to increase rice yields.