基于深度学习的财务与非财务信息的企业破产预测分析研究

Joong-Hyun Park
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引用次数: 0

摘要

过去对企业破产的研究主要是利用财务比率进行破产预测模型的实证分析。然而,随着信息通信技术的进步,人工智能的应用呈现出日益增长的趋势。本研究运用传统的企业破产预测方法,以及深度学习领域的机器学习和深度学习方法来呈现企业破产预测模型的结果及其预测能力。所使用的数据集包括公司特征,包括财务比率和非财务信息,以及用于说明经济状况的宏观经济指标。设计了SVM、RF、DNN、CNN和LSTM 5种模型,并对每种模型的模型可靠性和预测精度进行了分析。LSTM模型表现出较好的预测性能和较高的预测精度。当比较仅使用财务比率(集合1)、同时使用财务比率和公司特征(集合2)以及合并财务比率、公司特征和宏观经济指标(集合3)的不同方法时,包括所有这些因素,始终表现出最高的模型可靠性和预测准确性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Research on Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction Analysis Based on Financial and Non-Financial Information Using Deep Learning
In the past, research related to corporate bankruptcy has primarily conducted empirical analyses through bankruptcy prediction models using financial ratios. However, with the advancement of ICT technology, there has been a growing trend in applying artificial intelligence. In this study, both traditional corporate bankruptcy prediction methodologies and machine learning and deep learning methodologies from the field of deep learning were applied to present the results of corporate bankruptcy prediction models and their predictive power. The dataset used included corporate characteristics, including financial ratios and non-financial information, as well as macroeconomic indicators to account for economic conditions. Five models, SVM, RF, DNN, CNN, and LSTM, were designated, and the model reliability and prediction accuracy for each model were analyzed. The LSTM model demonstrated superior performance and the highest prediction accuracy among the models. When comparing different approaches using only financial ratios (Set 1), using financial ratios and corporate characteristics together (Set 2), and incorporating financial ratios, corporate characteristics, and macroeconomic indicators (Set 3), which included all of these factors, consistently exhibited the highest model reliability and prediction accuracy.
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