MiKlip历史集合模拟中对年代际太阳周期印记的关键评价

Tobias C. Spiegl, Ulrike Langematz, Holger Pohlmann, Jürgen Kröger
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要近几十年来有关日地联系的研究声称已经发现了准年代际太阳周期可以影响北半球冬季中层大气动力学的证据。有人认为,太阳光谱中紫外线部分的强度与低纬度平流层臭氧之间的反馈可能会产生经向温度梯度的异常,从而有可能改变中高纬度地区的纬向平均气流。纬向风和行星波之间的相互作用可导致在中层大气中产生的异常向下传播到对流层。最近,有人提出自上而下发起的年代际太阳信号可能调节地表气候并同步北大西洋涛动。提出了在气候模式中对太阳周期的真实表示,以显著提高年代际预测技能。由于缺乏现实的年代际预测模型设置和更广泛的分析,这些结论一直存在争议。在本文中,我们的目的是客观和改进的评估可能的太阳印记从大气中间到表面和从头到脚。因此,我们分析了使用最先进的马克斯普朗克气象研究所高分辨率配置地球系统模型(MPI-ESM-HR)进行的历史集合模拟的模型输出。这些模拟的目标是分离出最关键的模式物理,以促进年代际气候预测的基础研究,并在“Mittelfristige klimap”(MiKlip)框架内开发一个可操作的集合年代际预测系统。基于相关分析和多元线性回归分析,我们发现MPI-ESM-HR模拟了一个真实的、统计上显著的、强大的热带平流层顶短波升温速率和温度响应,与现有研究结果很好地吻合。然而,北半球冬季对这一初始辐射信号的动态响应较弱。我们发现,在太阳活动极大期,整体平均极涡在冬至略有增强,这与所谓的“自上而下”机制一致。然而,单个集合成员在响应太阳周期的动力响应中表现出相反的符号,这可能是由于整体内部变率很大,补偿了相当小的太阳印记。我们还分析了11年太阳周期可能的地表响应,并回顾了太阳强迫与北大西洋涛动之间的同步。我们发现对流层下层模拟的西风异常,以及平均海平面压力的异常,很可能独立于大气中层太阳信号的时间和所谓的自上而下的影响。相反,这种模式反映对流层的年代际内部变率,零星地模仿全年北极和北大西洋振荡的正相位和负相位,然后将其分配到太阳预报时间序列中,而没有任何合理的物理联系和可靠的太阳贡献。最后,通过应用领先-滞后相关性,我们发现太阳周期和北大西洋涛动年代际分量之间的同步更可能是一个统计伪产物,例如受到海洋内部年代际变化的影响,而不是紫外线太阳强迫和对流层准年代际变化之间的合理物理联系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A critical evaluation of decadal solar cycle imprints in the MiKlip historical ensemble simulations
Abstract. Studies concerning solar–terrestrial connections over the last decades claim to have found evidence that the quasi-decadal solar cycle can have an influence on the dynamics in the middle atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the winter season. It has been argued that feedbacks between the intensity of the UV part of the solar spectrum and low-latitude stratospheric ozone may produce anomalies in meridional temperature gradients which have the potential to alter the zonal-mean flow in middle to high latitudes. Interactions between the zonal wind and planetary waves can lead to a downward propagation of the anomalies, produced in the middle atmosphere, down to the troposphere. More recently, it has been proposed that top-down-initiated decadal solar signals might modulate surface climate and synchronize the North Atlantic Oscillation. A realistic representation of the solar cycle in climate models was suggested to significantly enhance decadal prediction skill. These conclusions have been debated controversial since then due to the lack of realistic decadal prediction model setups and more extensive analysis. In this paper we aim for an objective and improved evaluation of possible solar imprints from the middle atmosphere to the surface and with that from head to toe. Thus, we analyze model output from historical ensemble simulations conducted with the state-of-the-art Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model in high-resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-HR). The target of these simulations was to isolate the most crucial model physics to foster basic research on decadal climate prediction and to develop an operational ensemble decadal prediction system within the “Mittelfristige Klimaprognose” (MiKlip) framework. Based on correlations and multiple linear regression analysis we show that the MPI-ESM-HR simulates a realistic, statistically significant and robust shortwave heating rate and temperature response at the tropical stratopause, in good agreement with existing studies. However, the dynamical response to this initial radiative signal in the NH during the boreal winter season is weak. We find a slight strengthening of the polar vortex in midwinter during solar maximum conditions in the ensemble mean, which is consistent with the so-called “top-down” mechanism. The individual ensemble members, however, show a large spread in the dynamical response with opposite signs in response to the solar cycle, which might be a result of the large overall internal variability compensating for rather small solar imprints. We also analyze the possible surface responses to the 11-year solar cycle and review the proposed synchronization between the solar forcing and the North Atlantic Oscillation. We find that the simulated westerly wind anomalies in the lower troposphere, as well as the anomalies in the mean sea level pressure, are most likely independent from the timing of the solar signal in the middle atmosphere and the alleged top-down influences. The pattern rather reflects the decadal internal variability in the troposphere, mimicking positive and negative phases of the Arctic and North Atlantic oscillations throughout the year sporadically, which is then assigned to the solar predictor time series without any plausible physical connection and sound solar contribution. Finally, by applying lead–lag correlations, we find that the proposed synchronization between the solar cycle and the decadal component of the North Atlantic Oscillation might rather be a statistical artifact, affected for example by the internal decadal variability in the ocean, than a plausible physical connection between the UV solar forcing and quasi-decadal variations in the troposphere.
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