适应气候变率、农业气象信息以及社会经济和制度因素对肯尼亚农业生产力的综合效应

Godfrey Obwina Atsiaya, Eric Obedy Gido, Kenneth Waluse Sibiko, Joseph Jabu Mbudzya
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摘要

气候变率对农业产生了不利影响,适应战略在增强抵御能力从而确保粮食安全方面具有重要意义。农业气象服务对于决策和发展农民的特定适应能力至关重要,特别是当变异性影响农业生产力时。本研究的重点是气候变率适应、农业气象信息、社会经济和制度因素对肯尼亚农业生产力的综合影响。采用多阶段抽样技术,获得384名高粱农户的样本量。本研究采用内生转换回归模型来控制气候变化对农业生产力的影响。结果表明,在气候变率的适应者中,扩展接触和文化程度呈显著正相关。此外,在非适应者中,分配给农业的收入比例正显著。另一方面,在气候变率的适应者中,获得信贷、决策者的性别和年龄呈负向显著。同样,年龄在气候变率的非适应者中呈显著负相关。总体而言,适应气候变率的高粱产量高于不适应气候变率的高粱产量。这项研究建议,决策者和其他关键利益相关者可以增加推广接触的次数,并促进对农民的教育,使他们能够获得农业气象信息,从而适应气候变化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Composite effect of adaptation to climate variability, agrometeorological information, and socioeconomic and institutional factors on agricultural productivity in Kenya
Climate variability has adversely affected agriculture and adaptation strategies are significant in enhancing resilience hence ensuring food security. Agrometeorological services are essential in decision-making and developing farmers’ specific adaptive capacities mainly when variability affect agricultural productivity. This study focuses on the composite effect of adaptation to climate variability, agrometeorological information, socioeconomic and institutional factors on agricultural productivity in Kenya. Multi-stage sampling technique was used to obtain a sample size of 384 sorghum farmers. The study used an endogenous switching regression model to control for the selection problem arising from adaptation to climate variability on agricultural productivity. Results indicate that extension contacts and education level were positively significant among adapters of climate variability. Additionally, the proportion of income allocated for farming was positively significant among non-adapters. On the other hand, access to credit, gender and age of decision makers were negatively significant among adapters of climate variability. Similarly, age was negatively significant among non-adapters of climate variability. Overall, adapters to climate variability had higher sorghum output than non-adapters. This study recommends that policymakers and other key stakeholders could increase the number of extension contacts and promote education to farmers so that they can access agrometeorological information, hence adaptation to climate variability.
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