评估一种新的无缝短期集合降雨产品预测法属地中海地区山洪暴发的能力

IF 4.2 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Juliette Godet, Olivier Payrastre, Pierre Javelle, François Bouttier
{"title":"评估一种新的无缝短期集合降雨产品预测法属地中海地区山洪暴发的能力","authors":"Juliette Godet, Olivier Payrastre, Pierre Javelle, François Bouttier","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Flash floods have dramatic economic and social consequences, and efficient adaptation policies are required to reduce their impacts, especially in the context of global change. Developing more efficient flash flood forecasting systems can largely contribute to these adaptation requirements. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of a new seamless short-range ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) product, called PIAF-EPS (Prévision Immédiate Agrégée Fusionnée ensemble prediction system) and recently developed by Météo-France, to predict flash floods when used as input to an operational hydrological forecasting chain. For this purpose, eight flash flood events that occurred in the French Mediterranean region between 2019 and 2021 were reanalysed, using a hydrological-modelling chain similar to the one implemented in the French Vigicrues Flash operational flash flood monitoring system. The hydrological forecasts obtained from PIAF-EPS were compared to the forecasts obtained with different deterministic QPFs from which PIAF-EPS is directly derived. The verification method applied in this work uses scores calculated on contingency tables and combines the forecasts issued on each 1 km2 pixel of the territory. This offers a detailed view of the forecast performances, covering the whole river network and including the small ungauged rivers. The results confirm the added value of the ensemble PIAF-EPS approach for flash flood forecasting, in comparison to the different deterministic scenarios considered.","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"12 9","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Assessing the ability of a new seamless short-range ensemble rainfall product to anticipate flash floods in the French Mediterranean area\",\"authors\":\"Juliette Godet, Olivier Payrastre, Pierre Javelle, François Bouttier\",\"doi\":\"10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract. Flash floods have dramatic economic and social consequences, and efficient adaptation policies are required to reduce their impacts, especially in the context of global change. Developing more efficient flash flood forecasting systems can largely contribute to these adaptation requirements. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of a new seamless short-range ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) product, called PIAF-EPS (Prévision Immédiate Agrégée Fusionnée ensemble prediction system) and recently developed by Météo-France, to predict flash floods when used as input to an operational hydrological forecasting chain. For this purpose, eight flash flood events that occurred in the French Mediterranean region between 2019 and 2021 were reanalysed, using a hydrological-modelling chain similar to the one implemented in the French Vigicrues Flash operational flash flood monitoring system. The hydrological forecasts obtained from PIAF-EPS were compared to the forecasts obtained with different deterministic QPFs from which PIAF-EPS is directly derived. The verification method applied in this work uses scores calculated on contingency tables and combines the forecasts issued on each 1 km2 pixel of the territory. This offers a detailed view of the forecast performances, covering the whole river network and including the small ungauged rivers. The results confirm the added value of the ensemble PIAF-EPS approach for flash flood forecasting, in comparison to the different deterministic scenarios considered.\",\"PeriodicalId\":18922,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences\",\"volume\":\"12 9\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-11-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要山洪暴发具有严重的经济和社会后果,需要有效的适应政策来减少其影响,特别是在全球变化的背景下。开发更有效的山洪预报系统可以在很大程度上满足这些适应需求。本研究的目的是评估一种新的无缝短期集合定量降水预报(QPF)产品的预测能力,该产品被称为PIAF-EPS (prsamvision imsamdiate agrsamgsame fusionnsame集合预报系统),该产品最近由msamtsamo - france开发,用于预测作为业务水文预报链输入的山洪暴发。为此,使用类似于法国Vigicrues flash操作山洪监测系统的水文建模链,重新分析了2019年至2021年期间法国地中海地区发生的8次山洪暴发事件。将PIAF-EPS的水文预报结果与直接推导PIAF-EPS的不同确定性qpf的预报结果进行了比较。本工作中采用的验证方法使用在列联表上计算的分数,并结合在每1平方公里像素的领土上发布的预测。这提供了一个详细的预测性能视图,覆盖整个河网,包括小的未测量的河流。结果证实了集合PIAF-EPS方法在山洪预报中的附加价值,并考虑了不同的确定性情景。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Assessing the ability of a new seamless short-range ensemble rainfall product to anticipate flash floods in the French Mediterranean area
Abstract. Flash floods have dramatic economic and social consequences, and efficient adaptation policies are required to reduce their impacts, especially in the context of global change. Developing more efficient flash flood forecasting systems can largely contribute to these adaptation requirements. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of a new seamless short-range ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) product, called PIAF-EPS (Prévision Immédiate Agrégée Fusionnée ensemble prediction system) and recently developed by Météo-France, to predict flash floods when used as input to an operational hydrological forecasting chain. For this purpose, eight flash flood events that occurred in the French Mediterranean region between 2019 and 2021 were reanalysed, using a hydrological-modelling chain similar to the one implemented in the French Vigicrues Flash operational flash flood monitoring system. The hydrological forecasts obtained from PIAF-EPS were compared to the forecasts obtained with different deterministic QPFs from which PIAF-EPS is directly derived. The verification method applied in this work uses scores calculated on contingency tables and combines the forecasts issued on each 1 km2 pixel of the territory. This offers a detailed view of the forecast performances, covering the whole river network and including the small ungauged rivers. The results confirm the added value of the ensemble PIAF-EPS approach for flash flood forecasting, in comparison to the different deterministic scenarios considered.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
7.60
自引率
6.50%
发文量
192
审稿时长
3.8 months
期刊介绍: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) is an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences. Embracing a holistic Earth system science approach, NHESS serves a wide and diverse community of research scientists, practitioners, and decision makers concerned with detection of natural hazards, monitoring and modelling, vulnerability and risk assessment, and the design and implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies, including economical, societal, and educational aspects.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信