Misperceptions, Intergroup Prejudice, and the Varied Encounters Between European Citizens and Non-EU Foreigners

Abstract How does interpersonal exposure to immigrants influence citizens’ opinions about immigrants? The Intergroup Contact Theory (ICT) famously predicts improved attitudes under certain circumstances. However, research on the population innumeracy phenomenon predicts that this same exposure may worsen demographic misperceptions about immigrants. The current study seeks to analyze these contradictory possibilities with data on native-born citizens’ encounters with non-EU immigrants from the 2017 Eurobarometer survey. The analysis considers a wide variety of exposure contexts and generates hypotheses about which will matter most for each outcome based on cognitive availability processes and the optimal conditions outlined in the original ICT. The results indicate that intergroup exposure increases both positive attitudes toward immigrants and incorrect perceptions about immigrants. However, context matters. Those with exposure to immigrants among their primary networks or through their participation in sport, volunteer, and cultural activities exhibit the most pro-immigrant evaluations. Those with exposure through their neighborhoods and workplaces exhibit the most inflated perceptions. The study concludes by considering the implications of these findings for future research.