Prediction of the Efficiency of Hydraulic Fracturing Based on Reservoir Parameters

According to experts, the use of hydraulic fracturing can increase the oil and gas recovery factor by 10-15%. The Perm Territory belongs to the old oil-producing region of the Russian Federation. To date, more than 60% of the remaining recoverable oil reserves of the fields of the Perm region are concentrated in carbonate deposits. Most of the fields are currently in the late stages of development. These fields, as a rule, are characterized by the presence of undrained zones with residual reserves and low well flow rates. Most of the remaining reserves of the fields are concentrated in low-permeability reservoirs with a high degree of heterogeneity and difficult fluid filtration. Unfortunately, the results obtained in practice do not always correspond to preliminary calculations and do not reach the planned oil production rates. In connection with the above, the problem arises of predicting the effectiveness of hydraulic fracturing operations using mathematical methods of analysis. The effectiveness of hydraulic fracturing is undoubtedly influenced by both geological and technological parameters. In this paper, for the carbonate Kashirsky (K) and Podolsky (Pd) productive deposits of one of the oil fields in the Perm region, using step-by-step regression analysis based on geological and technological parameters, a forecast of the initial oil production rate after hydraulic fracturing was made. There was good agreement between model and experimental results obtained.