Monitoring and multi-scenario simulation of agricultural land changes using Landsat imageries and FLUS model on coastal Alanya

Anthropogenic activities have adverse impacts on productive lands around coastal zones due to rapid developments. Assessment of land use and land cover (LULC) changes provides better understanding of the process for conservation of such vulnerable ecosystems. Alanya is one of the most popular tourism hotspots in Mediterranean coast of Turkey, and even though the city faced with severe LULC changes after mid-80s due to tourism-related investments, limited number of studies has conducted in the area The study aimed to determine short-term and long-term LULC changes and effects of residential development process on agricultural lands using six Landsat imageries acquired between 1984 and 2017, and presented the first attempt of future simulation in the area. Average annual conversions (AAC) (ha) calculated to assess magnitudes of annual changes in six different periods. AACs used to calculate area demands for LULC2030 and LULC2050, whereby annual conversions from different periods were multiplied by number of years between 2017, 2030 and 2050 for each scenario. Finally, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for agricultural lands are simulated using FLUS model. Accordingly, agricultural lands decreased from 53.9% to 31.4% by 22.5% in 33 years, and predicted to change between 19.50% and 24.63% for 2030, 1.07% and 14.10% for 2050, based on pessimistic and optimistic scenarios, respectively.