埃塞俄比亚Genale Dawa盆地Yadot流域气候和土地利用/覆被变化对河流流量的影响

IF 3.5 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Air Soil and Water Research Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.1177/11786221231200106

Abay Mustefa Abdule, Alemayehu Muluneh, Abraham Woldemichael

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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候和土地利用/覆盖(LULC)变化是通过改变地下水补给和河流流量来影响水文制度的重要因素。研究了气候和土地利用效率变化对河流流量的单独和联合影响。利用SWAT模拟了近期(2021-2050)和中期(2051-2080)与1985 - 2015年基线期的河流流量。采用元胞自动机(CA)-马尔可夫链模型预测未来的LULC变化。利用区域气候模式(CCLM4.8、RACMO22T、EC-EARTH)在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5排放情景下的三整体平均值进行未来气候预估。2035 ~ 2055年，耕地、草地、居民点和林地的LULC分别增加了44.02%、30.35%、69.2%和55.05%，森林和灌丛土地的LULC分别减少了21.53%和11.08%。在RCP 4.5情景下，近期年、湿季和旱季降水预估分别增加了0.13%、0.02%和0.85%。总体而言，年、湿季和旱季降水预测呈轻微增加趋势。中期高排放情景下的最高年平均预估温度为2.0°C。在RCP4.5情景下，短期内气候和LULC变化综合影响下的流量预估在雨季增加8.72%，在旱季增加6.62%。同样，预计年平均流量将增加8.13%。在两种气候情景下，年度、湿季和旱季的流量预估显示，在近期和中期都持续增加。了解未来气候和LULC变化对河流流量的响应对于规划未来变暖条件下水资源管理的适应方案至关重要。

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Impact of Climate and Land Use/Cover Changes on Streamflow in Yadot Watershed, Genale Dawa Basin, Ethiopia

Climate and land use/cover (LULC) changes are essential factors that influence hydrological regimes by altering the groundwater recharge and river flow. This study investigated the separate and combined impact of climate and LULC changes on streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate streamflow under near-term (2021–2050) and mid-term (2051–2080) period against 1985 to 2015 baseline period. The Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain model was used to predict the future LULC change. The three-ensemble average of regional climate models (CCLM4.8, RACMO22T, EC-EARTH) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios were applied for future climate projection. The LULC predictions between 2035 and 2055 showed an increase in agricultural land, grassland, settlement areas and woodlands by 44.02%, 30.35%, 69.2%, and 55.05%, respectively, while forest and scrub/bush lands showed a decrease by decrease by 21.53% and 11.08%, respectively. The annual, wet, and dry seasons rainfall projections increased by 0.13%, 0.02%, and 0.85% respectively, during the near term period under RCP 4.5 scenarios. Overall, the annual, wet, and dry season rainfall projections showed slightly increasing tendency. The temperature projection consistently indicated a warmer future with the highest mean annual projected temperature being 2.0°C under high emission scenario during the midterm period. The projected streamflow under the combined impact of climate and LULC changes will increase by up to 8.72% in wet seasons and by up to 6.62% in dry seasons during the near-term period under RCP4.5 scenarios. Similarly, the projected mean annual streamflow will increase by up to 8.13%. The annual, wet and dry season’s streamflow projections showed a consistent increase during both near and midterm periods under both climate scenarios. Understanding the future response of streamflow under climate and LULC changes is crucial to plan adaptation options for water resources management under future warming condition.

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来源期刊

Air Soil and Water Research ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-

CiteScore

7.80

自引率

5.30%

发文量

审稿时长

8 weeks

期刊介绍： Air, Soil & Water Research is an open access, peer reviewed international journal covering all areas of research into soil, air and water. The journal looks at each aspect individually, as well as how they interact, with each other and different components of the environment. This includes properties (including physical, chemical, biochemical and biological), analysis, microbiology, chemicals and pollution, consequences for plants and crops, soil hydrology, changes and consequences of change, social issues, and more. The journal welcomes readerships from all fields, but hopes to be particularly profitable to analytical and water chemists and geologists as well as chemical, environmental, petrochemical, water treatment, geophysics and geological engineers. The journal has a multi-disciplinary approach and includes research, results, theory, models, analysis, applications and reviews. Work in lab or field is applicable. Of particular interest are manuscripts relating to environmental concerns. Other possible topics include, but are not limited to: Properties and analysis covering all areas of research into soil, air and water individually as well as how they interact with each other and different components of the environment Soil hydrology and microbiology Changes and consequences of environmental change, chemicals and pollution.