包含交互和延迟效应的经济主体动态模型

IF 0.3 Q4 ECONOMICS
Talgat Kilmatov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要:提出了多主体经济增长的动态模型。这是一个非线性微分-差分方程组。该模型考虑了经济主体之间的相互作用和时滞效应。给出了一些简单的解析特解。这些分析性的解决方案提供了一些清晰的经济解释。给出了比较情景的定量计算。以典型的全球发展速度为每年3%的十年为周期进行计算。主要有两种情况。考虑了合作或孤立代理开发的第一种场景。有一个由于使用其他合作伙伴而导致代理开发的场景。隔离的后果是每十年积压60%。第二种情况是使用其他代理成果的时间延迟-先导效应。考虑领先1 - 2年。在这种情况下,在其他条件相同的情况下,药剂的动态生长速度是其他药剂的1.5倍。对合作伙伴成就的反应速度越快,增长越有效。在这种情况下,有优势的乘法积累的影响。这种情况可以解释为战后日本经济加速增长的例证。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Dynamic Model of Economic Agents Including Interaction and Delay Effects
Abstract: The dynamic model of economic growth of several agents is presented. This is a system of non-linear differential-difference equations. The model takes into account the interaction of economic agents and the delay effect. Some simple analytic particular solutions are shown. These analytical solutions allow some clear economic interpretation. The comparative scenario quantitative calculations are given. The calculations are presented for time period of a decade for the typical global development rate of 3% per year. There are two main scenarios. The first scenario of cooperative or isolated agent development is considered. There is the scenario of the agent development due to use the other partners. The consequence of isolation is the backlog of 60% per decade. The second scenario is the time delay-lead effect to use the achievements of other agents. A lead of one - two years is considered. In this case, ceteris paribus, the dynamic growth of the agent is 1.5 times ahead of the others. More effective growth occurs with the faster and advance reaction rate to partner achievements. In this case there is the effect of the multiplicative accumulation of advantage. This scenario can be interpreted as the illustration of the accelerated economic growth of post-war Japan.
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