Frustrated with Obsolescence — Try Changing Your Mental Model

This article explores mental models on obsolescence management to assist with mitigating obsolescence for Command, Control, Computers, Communications, Cyber, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (C5ISR) systems. A systems-thinking methodology was used to develop these mental models, which were validated through interviews with 10 participants. The participants were U.S. Army acquisition practitioners at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland. This research complements the tools and training for mitigating obsolescence by deepening an organization’s understanding of the relationships among systems and the mental models that influence obsolescence management. These mental models are foundational to the interaction relationships of the system of interest (Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages, or DMSMS Management System) within the context of engineered systems. This is enabled by supporting systems such as the supply chain, configuration management, and the budget. Furthermore, this research presents a novel model of the systems within the obsolescence management system. Based on the relationships in the causal loop diagrams and application of a risk-based proactive obsolescence management mental model, one can predict a higher or lower likelihood of successfully mitigating a C5ISR system’s obsolescence.