The rise of minilateralism, the Indo-Pacific context, and the Arab Gulf states

ABSTRACTThis paper examines the potential of minilateralism in the context of the Arab Gulf states, given changes in the global geopolitical environment. As major powers such as the United States and China vie for security and economic opportunities, the Gulf will play a crucial role. Unlike the Cold War's simple bipolar order, the 2020s are likely to involve less formal and more dynamic arrangements, termed ‘minilateralism’. This paper details the sources, nature, and scope of minilateralism, comparing it to multilateralism, and considering its strengths and weaknesses. It then examines why minilateralism is potentially appealing to Gulf leaderships and looks at possible cases and modes of minilateralism that may emerge in and around the Gulf, including India's proposed Arabian-Mediterranean Corridor and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. The paper's conclusions are tentative, but there is evidence that the Gulf states are revisiting their foreign policies and beginning to adopt minilateral arrangements.KEYWORDS: MinilateralismArab Gulf statesQuadI2U2 AcknowledgementThis article was originally presented at the Gulf Research Center’s annual conference at Cambridge University in July 2022.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Additional informationNotes on contributorsMatthew GrayMatthew Gray is a professor in the School of International liberal Studies (SILS), Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan. Prior to joining Waseda in 2016, he was at The Australian National University, Canberra, from 2005 to 2016, and has also held visiting fellow positions at Durham University, UK and the University of Tokyo, Japan. At Waseda his research and teaching focuses on the contemporary Middle East, especially the political economy of the Persian Gulf, although he also has interests in wider issues in the modern Middle East and in broader international relations and security issues in the Indo-Pacific. He is the author of four books on the Middle East and a range of articles, chapters, and other works.