两种气候变化情景下墨西哥有袋动物的潜在分布

IF 1.5 3区 生物学 Q2 ZOOLOGY
Miguel Á Ortiz-Acosta, Jorge Galindo-González, Alejandro A Castro-Luna, Claudio Mota-Vargas
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化是21世纪生物多样性面临的主要威胁之一。然而,它可能对不同哺乳动物物种的影响尚不清楚,这使得实施保护策略变得困难。本文利用物种分布模型(SDM)评估了全球气候变化对墨西哥9种有袋动物中8种潜在分布的影响,并分析了其在现有自然保护区(NPAs)系统中的分布。我们使用了现在和未来(2050年和2080年)每个物种的存在记录和生物气候变量,并采用了两种不同的可能情景(代表性浓度路径RCP 4.5和8.5)。我们发现,在任何气候变化情景下,灰鲑都将拥有最稳定的潜在范围,而其余物种(Caluromys derbianus, Chironectes minimus, Didelphis marsupialis, D. virginiana, Philander负鼠,Marmosa mexicana和Metachirus nudicaudatus)将在未来经历显著的范围损失,尽管不仅是损失,根据我们的SDMs,所有物种在不同的气候情景下都有一定的范围增加。假设植被覆盖仍然存在。墨西哥现有的国家保护区系统目前保护的有袋动物不到潜在范围的20%,在未来的两种情景下,强烈建议对国家保护区以外的有袋动物区域进行重新评估,以长期保护这一群体。我们的研究结果为估计全球气候变化对有袋动物的影响提供了相关信息,使我们能够设计出更有效的方法来保护墨西哥这部分哺乳动物区系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Potential distribution of marsupials (Didelphimorphia: Didelphidae) in Mexico under 2 climate change scenarios
Abstract Climate change is one of the main threats to biodiversity in the 21st century. However, the effects that it may have on different mammal species are unknown, making it difficult to implement conservation strategies. In this paper, we used species distribution models (SDM) to assess the effect of global climate change on the potential distribution of the 8 of the 9 marsupial species in Mexico, and analyzed their distribution in the current system of natural protected areas (NPAs). We used presence records for each species and bioclimatic variables from the present and the future (2050 and 2080) with 2 contrasting possible scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP 4.5 and 8.5). We found that Tlacuatzin canescens would have the most stable potential range under any climate change scenario, while the remaining species (Caluromys derbianus, Chironectes minimus, Didelphis marsupialis, D. virginiana, Philander opossum, Marmosa mexicana, and Metachirus nudicaudatus) would undergo notable range losses in the future, though there would not only be losses—according to our SDMs, for all species there would be some range gain under the different climate scenarios, assuming the vegetation cover remained. The current system of NPAs in Mexico currently protects and under the 2 future scenarios would protect less than 20% of the potential range of marsupials, so a reevaluation of their areas beyond the NPAs is highly recommended for the long-term conservation of this group. Our results provide relevant information on the estimated effects of global climate change on marsupials, allowing us to design more effective methodologies for the protection of this portion of the mammalian fauna in Mexico.
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来源期刊
Journal of Mammalogy
Journal of Mammalogy 生物-动物学
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
5.90%
发文量
106
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Papers are published on mammalian behavior, conservation, ecology, genetics, morphology, physiology, and taxonomy.
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