南埃塞俄比亚降雨和温度的时空变异和趋势:对农村社区适应气候变化的影响

IF 2.1 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Daniel Dalle, Yisak Gecho, Sisay Belay Bedeke
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引用次数: 0

摘要

对于严重依赖雨水农业的农村社区来说,气候变化是一个环境挑战。本研究的主要目的是调查埃塞俄比亚南部降雨和温度的时空变化和趋势。利用ClimPACT2软件计算极端温度和降雨指数。利用非参数修正Mann-Kendall (MMK)检验和Sen 's斜率估计分析了降水和极端温度趋势的检测和量化。结果表明:Boditi School站和Mayokote站年平均降雨量呈下降趋势,分别在0.02 mm和0.04 mm量级有显著的统计学意义;4月、5月、6月、7月和8月降水量最高,Bilate Tena站、Boditi站和Mayakote站的最大降水量分别为117.50 mm、177.43 mm和228.84 mm。在季节尺度上,Bilate Tena站各月份的降雨量变化幅度较大,在49.54% ~ 126.92%之间,除春季变化幅度较小(40.65%)外,其余3个季节的降雨量变化幅度较小。此外,流域上的三个地点表现出不同的干旱迹象,如严重(1.28 <SRA & lt;1.65)和极端干旱(SRA >1.65)。暖日数(TX90p)和暖夜数(TN90p)分别为0.274 ~ 6.03和0.274 ~ 3.16,年增温趋势明显。3个农业生态区日最高气温(TXx)的年最大值为30.10 ~ 33.76℃,德加、沃伊纳德加和科拉农业生态区日最高气温(TNx)的年最大值为17 ~ 17.44℃,德加和科拉农业生态区日最高气温(TNx)的年最大值为低、中、高。因此,应根据降雨变率和气温持续上升的趋势,采取适当的适应策略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Spatiotemporal Variability and Trends in Rainfall and Temperature in South Ethiopia: Implications for Climate Change Adaptations in Rural Communities
Climate change is an environmental challenge for rural communities that rely heavily on rainwater-based agriculture. The main goal of this study is to investigate spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in southern Ethiopia. Extreme temperature and rainfall indices were computed using the ClimPACT2 software. The detection and quantification of trends in rainfall and temperature extremes were analyzed using a nonparametric modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test and Sen’s slope estimator. Results indicated that the mean annual rainfall has a declining trend at Boditi School and Mayokote stations with a statistically significant amount at magnitudes of 0.02 mm and 0.04 mm, respectively. The highest average monthly rainfall in the catchment was observed in the months of April, May, June, July, and August up to maximum rainfall of 117.50 mm, 177.43 mm, and 228.84 mm in Bilate Tena, Boditi, and Mayakote stations, respectively. On a seasonal scale, rainfall in Bilate Tena station was highly variable in all months, ranging from 49.54% to 126.92%, and three seasons except spring which showed moderate variation at 40.65%. In addition, the three locations over the catchment exhibited varied drought signs such as severe (1.28 < SRA < 1.65) and extreme drought (SRA > 1.65). The temperature indices, on the other hand, exhibited a warming trend over the catchment which was observed through an increased annual number of warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p) ranges from 0.274 to 6.03 and 0.274 to 3.16, respectively. The annual maximum value of the daily maximum temperature (TXx) ranges from 30.10 to 33.76°C in the three agroecological zones and showed low, medium, and high values in Dega, Woyna Dega, and Kola agroecologies, while the annual maximum value of the daily minimum temperature (TNx) ranged between 17 and 17.44°C at Dega and Kola, respectively. Therefore, based on trends in rainfall variability and persistent temperature rise, appropriate adaptation strategies should be adopted.
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来源期刊
Advances in Meteorology
Advances in Meteorology 地学天文-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
3.40%
发文量
80
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Advances in Meteorology is a peer-reviewed, Open Access journal that publishes original research articles as well as review articles in all areas of meteorology and climatology. Topics covered include, but are not limited to, forecasting techniques and applications, meteorological modeling, data analysis, atmospheric chemistry and physics, climate change, satellite meteorology, marine meteorology, and forest meteorology.
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