Method for forecasting and calculating the electrical load of municipal consumers under uncertainty

The study addresses the conformity of actual electricity consumption to the calculated value in electric distribution networks in which municipal consumers predominate in several cities of the Chelyabinsk region. To study the conformity between the specific electrical load established by regulatory documents and the actual value per apartment according to power consumption data in several cities of the Chelyabinsk region, the average annual power consumption by municipal consumers with a specific number of apartments was analyzed over a period of 2021–2022. The correspondence analysis of the average annual electricity consumption by municipal consumers in the studied facilities was carried out using the conventional method for calculating the electrical load over the given period following the guidelines outlined in SP 256.1325800.2016. The discrepancy between the actual electrical load on the apartment and its normative value established by the acting normative documents ranged from minus 48 to 300% with respect to electricity consumption. For the considered 16 objects located in the cities of the Chelyabinsk region, the discrepancy between the actual electrical load and the established normative values was compared. For 6 apartments, this discrepancy ranged from minus 58 to 155%. To improve the accuracy of forecasting electricity consumption and calculating electrical loads in electric distribution networks with a predominance of municipal consumers, methods using a new factor were recommended. This factor involves a generalized uncertainty coefficient Ai, whose values are determined for the considered period. When using the developed methods, relative deviations in the forecast calculations are less than or equal to 10%.