基于确定性和概率框架的NBCC 2020 GMPEs估算弗雷泽河三角洲历史地震液化

IF 3.1 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL
Alireza Javanbakht, Sheri Molnar, Abouzar Sadrekarimi, Hadi Ghofrani
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在不列颠哥伦比亚省南部弗雷泽河三角洲的多个寄主沉积物中,发现了20世纪90年代砂堤和吹砂的古液化特征,这些特征都小于3500 BP。这些古液化点可能与卡斯卡迪亚俯冲地震有关。经验震级约束关系常用于估计古地震震级。为了确定可能产生古液化特征的卡斯卡迪亚界面地震的下限震级,我们使用了来自2020年加拿大国家建筑规范第6次加拿大地震危险模型的界面地震地震动预测方程。我们估计了在研究区开始古液化所需的界面地震的最小M值及其峰值地面加速度(最大值)。从三种不同震源距离的完全破裂确定性情景出发,我们确定卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带界面大逆冲地震诱发弗雷泽河三角洲液化所需的最小M跨度为8.0-8.9,对应的最大范围为0.09-0.13 g。我们还通过蒙特卡罗模拟在概率框架中进行了反算古液化分析,以纳入选择性不确定性(锥体穿透阻力、地下水位和最大值)和认知不确定性(液化简化模型)。所开发的概率方法也适用于前方液化评估和全球其他液化地点。这四个被调查地点的概率古液化的中位数M介于8.8和9.0之间。我们的概率结果还揭示了Cascadia界面地震与M >8.9导致在弗雷泽河三角洲触发液化的概率为31%-57%。此外,我们开发了特定于卡斯卡迪亚界面地震和代表性场地E级条件的确定性和概率震级界限曲线。这些曲线为预测太平洋西北地区卡斯卡迪亚界面地震诱发液化提供了比经验边界曲线更精确的震级估计。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Estimation of historical earthquake-induced liquefaction in Fraser River delta using NBCC 2020 GMPEs in deterministic and probabilistic frameworks
Paleo-liquefaction features of sand dykes and sand blows were identified in the 1990s at multiple host sediments in the Fraser River delta in southern British Columbia all younger than 3500 BP. These paleo-liquefaction sites could be linked to Cascadia subduction earthquakes. Empirical magnitude-bound relationships are often used to estimate paleo-earthquake magnitudes. To determine the lower bound magnitude of Cascadia interface earthquakes that could have generated the paleo-liquefaction features, we use ground motion prediction equations for interface earthquakes from the sixth Canadian seismic hazard model of the 2020 National Building Code of Canada. We estimate the minimum M and its peak ground acceleration ( a max ) of an interface earthquake required to initiate paleo-liquefaction in the study region. Starting with three full-rupture deterministic scenarios of varying source-to-site distance, we determine the minimum M required from Cascadia subduction zone interface mega-thrust earthquakes to induce liquefaction in the Fraser River delta spans 8.0–8.9 with a corresponding a max range of 0.09–0.13 g. We also perform a back-calculation paleo-liquefaction analysis in a probabilistic framework to incorporate aleatory uncertainties (cone penetration resistance, groundwater table, and a max ) and epistemic uncertainties (liquefaction simplified model) via the Monte Carlo simulation. The developed probabilistic methodology is also applicable to a forward liquefaction assessment and other liquefaction sites globally. The median M from this probabilistic paleo-liquefaction for the four investigated sites lies between 8.8 and 9.0. Our probabilistic results also reveal that Cascadia interface earthquakes with M > 8.9 lead to a 31%–57% probability of liquefaction triggering in the Fraser River delta. In addition, we developed deterministic and probabilistic magnitude-bound curves specific to Cascadia interface earthquakes and representative site class E conditions. These curves provide more accurate magnitude estimations for predicting seismic-induced liquefaction from Cascadia interface earthquakes for sites in the Pacific Northwest than empirical bound curves.
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来源期刊
Earthquake Spectra
Earthquake Spectra 工程技术-工程:地质
CiteScore
8.40
自引率
12.00%
发文量
88
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Earthquake Spectra, the professional peer-reviewed journal of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI), serves as the publication of record for the development of earthquake engineering practice, earthquake codes and regulations, earthquake public policy, and earthquake investigation reports. The journal is published quarterly in both printed and online editions in February, May, August, and November, with additional special edition issues. EERI established Earthquake Spectra with the purpose of improving the practice of earthquake hazards mitigation, preparedness, and recovery — serving the informational needs of the diverse professionals engaged in earthquake risk reduction: civil, geotechnical, mechanical, and structural engineers; geologists, seismologists, and other earth scientists; architects and city planners; public officials; social scientists; and researchers.
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