The Spatial Economic Impact of Crime: Evidence from the Construction Sector in Italian Municipalities

Abstract Literature has mainly focused on understanding whether organized crime impacts on economic growth, broadly intended. Yet, at the local level, little is known as to how crime may affect economic activities. Using a unique geo-localized dataset on Italian firms, we exploit the strengthening of policy enforcement against corruption to show that when municipalities where the city council is dissolved because of organized-crime infiltration, the construction sector suffers a 7% reduction in the value added of firms located in the same area where the council dissolution occurred. We also find that the effect is larger, the longer the commissioner is present in the municipal council. Taken together our findings suggest that the action of the commissioner depresses the economic activity in the construction sector of the area where the temporary-administered municipality is located, given that it blocks all those relationships with firms related with criminality. This calls for a contemporaneous intervention stimulating public procurements with ‘good’ firms. (JEL codes: K42, D73, R10 and H32)