The UAE’s energy system and GHG emissions: pathways to achieving national goals by 2050

Abstract In recent years, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has developed strategies to increase renewable power generation and reduce emissions to net zero by 2050. Electricity generation and energy-intensive industries (EII) have the largest potentials for emission reduction. Therefore, an up-to-date inventory of greenhouse gas emissions and a study of the pathways to achieving the 2050 targets are essential. This study focuses on power production and EII (aluminium, steel and cement). The structure of these sectors is modelled and simulated up to 2050 using a system dynamics (SD) methodology. The SD model is validated to reflect the real-world state of the system using the emissions inventory projections as reference modes. Nineteen mitigation policies are considered in the selected sectors and four policy scenarios were simulated. The results show that implementing the Energy Strategy 2050 in the power sector can result in a reduction of 63.5% in emissions in that sector, which translates into a reduction of 33.5% overall by 2050. Additionally, implementing all identified mitigation strategies to full utilization in EII yields a 94% reduction in that sector, which translates into a 78% reduction overall. Decarbonizing the aluminium industry yields the highest emissions reductions, followed by power production, then cement and finally steel. In the best-case scenario, 22.1% of the business-as-usual emissions are still released and further decarbonization—mainly in the power sector—will be required. This is achievable given the trajectory of the UAE’s successful nuclear energy programme and the prospect of utilizing carbon capture, utilization and storage even further.