韩国:一个令人难以置信的萎缩的国家,利用该国的人力资产

Prema Nakra, Kevin Bergin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

对人口过剩的担忧已经伴随我们很长时间了,至少从1798年托马斯·马尔萨斯预言人口增长过快,将超过粮食生产并导致饥荒开始。共识是,在过去的200年里,快速增长的人口消耗了地球的资源,破坏了环境,并引发了战争。与对人口过剩的恐慌相反,越来越多的专家发出了另一种警告。研究表明,全球人口增长率在20世纪60年代达到顶峰,此后一直在放缓,到本世纪末可能会趋于停滞。根据《柳叶刀》2020年发表的一项新研究,全球人口将在2064年左右达到97亿的峰值,然后在本世纪末降至88亿。此外,预计到2100年,23个国家的人口将减少一半。生育率和死亡率下降与人口结构转变之间的关系已经得到了广泛的研究和充分的记录,但它们对继续进行国家经济发展议程所需的劳动力的影响尚未在文献中得到系统的调查。以韩国为例,我建议讨论影响韩国人口规模和结构的不可避免的人口变化及其对该国劳动力/人力资源的可用性和充足性的影响。最后,我将提出公共政策建议,以提高人力资本的可用性、参与度和生产率。关键词:总生育率、抚养比、移民改革、企业社会责任
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
SOUTH KOREA: AN INCREDIBLY SHRINKING NATION LEVERAGING THE COUNTRY�S HUMAN ASSETS
ABSTRACT Fear of overpopulation has been with us for a long time, at least since Thomas Malthus predicted in 1798 that population would grow so fast that it would outstrip food production and lead to famine. Consensus is that for the past 200 years, a rapidly rising population has consumed the earth’s resources, ruined the environment, and started wars. Contrary to the panic of overpopulation, a growing number of experts have been sounding a different kind of alarm. Studies reveal that the global population growth rate peaked in the 1960s, has been slowing since then, and may be heading towards a standstill by the end of this century. According to a new study published in 2020 by the Lancet the global population will peak at 9.7 billion around 2064, then drop off to 8.8 billion toward the end of the century. It is also projected that 23 countries could expect their populations to halve by 2100. The association between fertility and mortality declines and the demographic transition has been extensively studied and well documented, but their impact on labor force needed to continue with national economic development agenda has not been systematically investigated in the literature. Using South Korea as a case study, I propose to discuss the unavoidable demographic changes affecting the size and structure of South Korea’s population and its impact on availability and adequacy of the country’s labor/human resources. Finally, I will make public policy recommendations to enhance human capital availability, participation and productivity. Keywords Total fertility rates, dependency ratios, Immigration reforms, Corporate Social Responsibility.
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