The United States’ Myanmar policy after the 2021 military coup and its prospects under China–US strategic competition

AbstractThis article examines recent foreign policy of the United States (US) toward Myanmar in the aftermath of the military coup led by Min Aung Hlaing on February 1, 2021. In response to the coup, President Joe Biden imposed targeted sanctions on the responsible military leaders. Against the backdrop of rising tensions between the US and China, this article explores the future of US–Myanmar relations and a possible return to the previously strained relationship from 1994 to 2008. To investigate the motives behind the coup by the Tatmadaw and the responses of the US executive and legislative branches, this article utilizes a combination of document research and semi-structured interviews with retired diplomats, scholars, observers, and activists. The analysis concludes that the US will likely continue its targeted sanctions policy while maintaining diplomatic relations with Naypyidaw in order to maintain influence in Myanmar during the US–China strategic competition. The article also highlights the potential for a future deterioration of US–Myanmar relations.Keywords: Myanmar/BurmaUnited StatesChina factormilitary coup 2021targeted sanction AcknowledgementsThis research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for profit sectors. There are no conflicts of interest from any parties that may affect the objectivity of this work.Notes1 Nehginpao Kipgen, “The 2020 Myanmar Election and the 2021 Coup: Deepening Democracy or Widening Division?,” Asian Affairs 52, no. 1 (2021): 4–6, https://doi.org/10.1080/03068374.2021.1886429.2 Larry Jagan, “New Democracy Demands Unleashed,” Bangkok Post, November 12, 2020, https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2018139/new-democracy-demands-unleashed.3 “Myanmar’s Purchase of Planes From Jordan a Sign of Things to Come,” The Irrawaddy, December 18, 2020, https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/analysis/myanmars-purchase-planes-jordan-sign-things-come.html; Ashiwini Deshpande, Thandar Hnin Khaing, and Tom Traill, “Future Development: Myanmar’s Response to the Covid-19 Pandemic,” Brookings, December 1, 2020, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/12/01/myanmars-response-to-the-covid-19-pandemic/.4 Maung Aung Myoe, In the Name of Pauk-Phaw: Myanmar’s China Policy Since 1948 (Singapore: ISEAS Publishing, 2011), 168.5 Erin Murphy, Burmese Haze: US Policy and Myanmar’s Opening - and Closing (Michigan, US: Association for Asian Studies, 2022), 171–72.6 Olivia Enos, “Scaling Up the US Response to the Coup in Burma,” Backgrounder, no. 3629 (2021): 4, 6.7 Moe Thuzar, “Burma/Myanmar and the United States: The Dilemma of a Delicate Balance,” Asia Policy 16, no. 4 (2021): 141–42, https://doi.org/10.1353/asp.2021.0062.8 Alan P. Dobson and Steve Marsh, US Foreign Policy Since 1948: Making of the Contemporary World, 2nd ed. (New York, US: Routledge, 2006), 207–8.9 Ibid., 205, 210–11.10 David I. Steinberg, “Burma-Myanmar: The US-Burmese Relationship and Its Vicissitudes,” in Short of the Goal: U.S. Policy and Poorly Performing States, ed. Nancy Birdsall, Milan Vaishnav, and Robert L. Ayres (Washington, US: Center for Global Development, 2006), 223–24.11 Kenton Clymer, A Delicate Relationship: The United States and Burma/Myanmar Since 1945 (New York, US: Cornell University Press, 2015), 236–37.12 Ibid., 263, 271–72.13 Jürgen Haacke, “The United States and Myanmar: From Antagonists to Security Partners?,” Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs 34, no. 2 (2015): 55–83, https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470999042.ch6.14 Ibid.15 Nehginpao Kipgen, “US–Myanmar Relations: Change of Politics under the Bush and Obama Administrations,” in Myanmar: A Political History, ed. Nehginpao Kipgen (New Delhi, India: Oxford University Press, 2016), 111–12, https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof.16 Ibid.17 Su-Ann Oh and Philip Andrews-Speed, Chinese Investment and Myanmar’s Shifting Political Landscape (Singapore: ISEAS Publishing, 2015), 37.18 Michal Kolmaš and Šárka Kolmašová, “A ‘Pivot’ That Never Existed: America’s Asian Strategy under Obama and Trump,” Cambridge Review of International Affairs 32, no. 1 (2019): 7, https://doi.org/10.1080/09557571.2018.1553936.19 “US-Myanmar Policy Under Trump in the Spotlight With New Sanctions,” The Diplomat, July 18, 2019, https://thediplomat.com/2019/07/us-myanmar-policy-under-trump-in-the-spotlight-with-new-sanctions/.20 “Donald Trump Could Be Starting a New Cold War With China,” TIME, January 2017, https://time.com/4644775/donald-trump-china-trade-cold-war/; “A New Cold War Has Begun,” Foreign Policy, January 2019, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/01/07/a-new-cold-war-has-begun/.21 David I. 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Verbiest, “Myanmar: Building Economic Foundations,” Asian-Pacific Economic Literature 30, no. 1 (2016): 45, https://doi.org/10.1111/apel.12133.75 Andrew Selth, Email interview, December 8, 2020.76 According to Freedom House, “liberal democracies” are defined as countries that possess both civil liberties and an electoral system, while "partly free" countries are characterized as having an electoral system but lacking civil liberties. Their survey shows a decline in the number of liberal democracies from 89 in 2008 to 58 in 2009.77 David I. 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Until its resolution in 2012, this government never received official recognition from the US and its allies.95 Grant Peck, “Myanmar Extends State of Emergency, Delaying Expected Polls,” Associated Press, February 2, 2023, https://apnews.com/article/politics-myanmar-government-min-aung-hlaing-a8feaa2812b09a95533efc9252194313.96 Gwen Robinson, WhatsApp interview, April 3, 2021.97 Jessica T. Mathews, “Present at the Re-Creation?,” Foreign Affairs: Decline and Fall: Can America Ever Lead Again? 100, no. 2 (2021): 13.98 Debbie Stothard, Zoom interview, January 19, 2021.Additional informationNotes on contributorsRoy Anthony RogersDr. Roy Anthony Rogers is Associate Professor in the Asia Europe Institute and the Department of International and Strategic Studies at University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. He can be contacted at rarogers@um.edu.myWui Chern LiewLiew Wui Chern is PhD candidate in Department of International and Strategic Studies at University of Malaya. He can be contacted at liewwuichern@gmail.comJatswan Singh SidhuDr. Jatswan S. Sidhu is Professor in the School of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences and Leisure Management, Taylor’s University in Subang Jaya, Malaysia. He can be contacted at jatswan.singh@taylors.edu.my