模块化建设项目风险管理的多准则决策模型

IF 3.4 Q2 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY
Sabah Khodabocus, Senem Seyis
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要模块化领域需要一个精确的指南来确定最有效的风险管理方法。本研究的主要研究目标是建立一个多准则决策模型,根据相关的风险准则寻找最有效的风险管理方法。在此范围内,对模块化建设项目的风险标准和风险管理方法进行了识别和分类。系统的文献回顾,半结构化访谈和开放式问卷调查进行了识别和分类的目的。采用德尔菲法和层次分析法(AHP)对已识别的风险和风险途径进行排序和量化,并建立决策模型。采用由11位专家组成的两轮德尔菲法,对确定的风险管理方法进行了有效的绩效评分。降低百分比标准差,计算相对重要指数(RII)、Cronbach’s alpha和Kendall’s consistency coefficient (Kendall’s W),以保证输出的信度、效度和一致性水平。层次分析法选择对德尔菲法的结果进行量化,解决多准则决策过程,建立模块化建设项目风险管理的多准则决策模型。三角测量结果显示,关键风险类别为供应链、健康与安全、利益相关者和政府支持。精益原则,如最后的计划系统,价值流映射,及时,和改善是最高评级的风险管理方法。本研究的新颖之处在于识别和分析关键风险类别,根据效率绩效提供相应的风险管理方法,并提出决策模型作为模块化建设项目风险管理的指导。关键词:模块化施工;风险管理;多准则决策;披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。数据可用性声明本研究中使用的数据具有独特的DOIs用于定性和定量分析电子表格,应合理要求从相应作者处获取。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Multi-criteria decision-making model for risk management in modular construction projects
AbstractThe modular sector needs a precise guide to determine the most efficient risk management approaches. The main research objective of this study is to develop a multi-criteria decision-making model to find the most efficient risk management approach according to the relevant risk criteria. The risk criteria and risk management approaches for modular construction projects were also identified and classified within this scope. A systematic literature review, semi-structured interviews, and open-ended questionnaires were performed for identification and classification purposes. For ranking and quantifying the identified risks and risk approaches, as well as developing the decision-making model, the Delphi method and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) were conducted. A two-round Delphi method, with eleven experts, was conducted to achieve efficient performance scores of the identified risk management approaches. The percentage standard deviation decreased, Relative Importance Index (RII), Cronbach’s alpha, and Kendall’s coefficient of concordance (Kendall’s W) were calculated to ensure the outputs’ reliability, validity, and agreement level. The AHP method opted to quantify the Delphi method outputs, solve the multi-criteria decision-making process, and develop the multi-criteria decision-making model for risk management of modular construction projects. Triangulation results show that the critical risk categories are supply chain, health and safety, stakeholders, and governmental support. Lean principles such as the Last Planner System, Value Stream Mapping, Just in Time, and Kaizen are top-rated risk management approaches. This research’s novelty is identifying and analyzing crucial risk categories, providing the relevant risk management approaches ranked according to efficiency performance, and presenting a decision-making model as a guideline for risk management of modular construction projects.Keywords: Modular constructionrisk managementmulti-criteria decision-makingoff-site constructiondelphi methodconstruction management; analytic hierarchy process Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Data availability statementThe data used in this study with unique DOIs for the qualitative and quantitative analysis spreadsheets are available from the corresponding authors upon reasonable request.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.60
自引率
17.90%
发文量
112
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Construction Management publishes quality papers aiming to advance the knowledge of construction management. The Journal is devoted to the publication of original research including, but not limited to the following: Sustainable Construction (Green building; Carbon emission; Waste management; Energy saving) Construction life cycle management Construction informatics (Building information modelling; Information communication technology; Virtual design and construction) Smart construction (Robotics; Artificial intelligence; 3D printing) Big data for construction Legal issues in construction Public policies for construction Building and Infrastructures Health, safety and well-being in construction Risk management in construction Disaster management and resilience Construction procurement Construction management education
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