Remote sensing reveals how armed conflict regressed woody vegetation cover and ecosystem restoration efforts in Tigray (Ethiopia)

In recent years, armed conflicts are globally on the rise, causing drastic human and environmental harm. The Tigray war in Ethiopia is one of the recent violent conflicts that has abruptly reversed decades of ecosystem restoration efforts. This paper analyzes changes in woody vegetation cover during the period of armed conflict (2020–2022) using remote sensing techniques, supplemented by field testimony and secondary data. Extent of woody vegetation cover was analyzed using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) thresholding method from Sentinel 2 images in Google Earth Engine, and scale of de-electrification was qualitatively analyzed from Black Marble HD nighttime lights dataset, acquired from NASA's Black Marble team. The magnitude, direction as well as the mechanisms of change in woody vegetation cover varied across the region and over time. Tigray's woody vegetation cover fluctuated within 20% of the landmass. Mainly scattered to mountainous areas, the dry Afromontane forest cover declined from about 17% in 2020 to 15% in 2021, and 12% in 2022. About 17% of the overall decline was observed between 500 m and 2000 m elevation, where there is higher anthropogenic pressure. Land restoration practices meant to avert land degradation and desertification were interrupted and the area turned warfare ground. In many areas, forests were burned, the trees cut and the area became barren. The suspension of public services such as electricity for household or industrial use created heavy reliance on firewood and charcoal, further threatening to compound weather and climate. The magnitude of disturbance in a region that is already at a very high risk of desertification requires urgent national and international attention. Continued ecosystem disturbance could eventually make the domain part of a wider desert connecting the Sahel to the Afar Triangle, a scenario which may render the area uninhabitable.