Price transmission analysis of Irish butter export prices in the world butter market

Abstract In 2019, Ireland was the third-largest exporter of butter in the world butter market but Irish butter prices have been more volatile compared to other Irish dairy products. Yet, empirical research that examines the market price dynamics and international competitor behavior in the butter market remains scarce. The Vector Error Correction Model was applied to data from 1970–2019, to test the extent to which changes in competitor butter prices and Irish farm milk prices had an impact on Irish butter prices. The results provide evidence of asymmetric price transmissions, Irish butter prices were more responsive to shocks in New Zealand (NZ) butter prices and Irish farm milk prices in the long-run. Declining world milk prices over time, related to milk supply, perishability and storability factors, may prevent symmetric response of Irish milk prices to changes/shocks in Irish butter prices. Moreover, different target markets and EU/NZ policies for Ireland and NZ butter may prevent symmetric response of Irish butter prices to changes/shocks from NZ butter prices. Essentially, the take home message for the butter industry is that Irish butter prices must not be studied in isolation, NZ is a major butter competitor to Ireland in the world market and NZ butter prices play a significant role on how Irish butter prices change.