西安市“双碳”目标下的碳排放计量与脱钩效应

Renquan HUANG
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引用次数: 0

摘要

城市产生了超过60%的碳排放,是实现这一目标的主要战场。然而,目前还没有统一的、标准化的城市碳排放量的测量方法。本文以西安市为例,采用新标准对城市碳排放进行测算。然后,根据Tapio解耦理论,对经济发展与碳排放的解耦进行了研究。基于广义Divisia指数法,提出解耦努力模型,研究碳排放因子对碳减排的影响。结果表明:①1995—2021年,西安市碳排放快速增长,年均增长率为6.06%,主要受城市化和工业化进程加快的影响;(二)能源消费部门碳排放占比最大,为77.38% ~ 89.46%。西安的能源结构以化石燃料为主,尤其是煤炭,占相当大的比重。为了实现“双碳”目标,减少对化石燃料的依赖至关重要。(ⅲ)“十五”时期处于“膨胀耦合”状态,“九五”至“十四五”时期处于“弱脱钩”状态。在“十五”碳峰值年之后,将处于“强脱钩”状态。农业生产核算率先实现了“强脱钩”状态。(四)西安市政府为解耦做出了努力,但还不够。技术创新对西安市的碳减排起到了至关重要的作用,是实现“双碳”目标的关键因素。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Carbon Emission Measurement and the Decoupling Effect Under the "Double Carbon" Goal in Xi'an, China

Cities generate more than 60% of carbon emissions and are the main battleground for achieving the target. However, there is no unified and standardized measurement methods of carbon emissions in cities. In this paper, we took Xi'an as an example and started by measuring carbon emissions with the new standards. Then, the decoupling of economic development from carbon emissions was studied according to the Tapio decoupling theory. Based on the generalized Divisia index method, the decoupling effort model was proposed to study the impact of carbon emission factors contributing to carbon reduction. The results show: (ⅰ) During the period 1995–2021, the carbon emissions of Xi'an increased rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 6.06%, due to the accelerating pace of urbanization and industrialization. (ⅱ) The energy consumption sector accounted for the largest share of carbon emissions, ranging from 77.38% to 89.46%. Xi'an's energy structure is primarily based on fossil fuels, especially coal, which holds a significant proportion. To achieve the "double carbon" goal, it is crucial to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels. (ⅲ) The 10th Five-Year Plan was in the state of "expansive coupling", while other periods were in the "weak decoupling" state from the 9th to 14th Five-Year Plan periods. After the carbon peak year in the 15th Five-Year Plan, it would be in a state of "strong decoupling". The agricultural production account was the first to achieve a "strong decoupling" state. (ⅳ) The government of Xi'an made efforts to decouple, but these were not enough. Technological innovation played a crucial role in the carbon reduction of Xi'an, and was a key factor in achieving the "double carbon" goal.

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