{"title":"青藏高原大地震烈度分级值的时间变化分析与大地震烈度预测","authors":"Zhenbiao Liu, Yanxiang Yu, Liang Xiao","doi":"10.1785/0120230102","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT China has relatively rich macroseismic isoseismal maps, which play an important role in seismic hazard analysis and the development of reliable earthquake loss models. The macroseismic intensity is assessed based on the Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale, which is constantly being revised as research progresses and the seismic defense capability is enhanced. To investigate whether intensity rating values show consistency across time in statistical significance, this study collected 543 isoseismal lines for 216 earthquakes on the Tibetan Plateau from 1960 to 2020. Taking intensity prediction equations (IPEs) as a reference, statistical tests of the residuals indicate that there is temporal variation in intensity rating values, which is inconsistent with the default assumption that intensity rating values are consistent for different time periods when developing IPEs. Therefore, we analyze the characteristics of intensity rating values by statistical tests and investigate the mechanism by which the temporal variation in intensity rating values affects IPEs by residual decomposition. The results show that despite the temporal variation in intensity rating values, they can still be used to develop IPEs, and that temporal variability can be reduced by adjustment. Finally, we obtain the regression process of IPEs based on the partially nonergodic assumption considering the temporal variation in intensity rating values, and perform a case study, using the Tibetan Plateau as an example.","PeriodicalId":9444,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America","volume":"74 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Analyzing the Temporal Variation in Macroseismic Intensity Rating Values and Predicting Macroseismic Intensity on the Tibetan Plateau\",\"authors\":\"Zhenbiao Liu, Yanxiang Yu, Liang Xiao\",\"doi\":\"10.1785/0120230102\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"ABSTRACT China has relatively rich macroseismic isoseismal maps, which play an important role in seismic hazard analysis and the development of reliable earthquake loss models. The macroseismic intensity is assessed based on the Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale, which is constantly being revised as research progresses and the seismic defense capability is enhanced. To investigate whether intensity rating values show consistency across time in statistical significance, this study collected 543 isoseismal lines for 216 earthquakes on the Tibetan Plateau from 1960 to 2020. Taking intensity prediction equations (IPEs) as a reference, statistical tests of the residuals indicate that there is temporal variation in intensity rating values, which is inconsistent with the default assumption that intensity rating values are consistent for different time periods when developing IPEs. Therefore, we analyze the characteristics of intensity rating values by statistical tests and investigate the mechanism by which the temporal variation in intensity rating values affects IPEs by residual decomposition. The results show that despite the temporal variation in intensity rating values, they can still be used to develop IPEs, and that temporal variability can be reduced by adjustment. Finally, we obtain the regression process of IPEs based on the partially nonergodic assumption considering the temporal variation in intensity rating values, and perform a case study, using the Tibetan Plateau as an example.\",\"PeriodicalId\":9444,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America\",\"volume\":\"74 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-09-27\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1785/0120230102\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1785/0120230102","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Analyzing the Temporal Variation in Macroseismic Intensity Rating Values and Predicting Macroseismic Intensity on the Tibetan Plateau
ABSTRACT China has relatively rich macroseismic isoseismal maps, which play an important role in seismic hazard analysis and the development of reliable earthquake loss models. The macroseismic intensity is assessed based on the Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale, which is constantly being revised as research progresses and the seismic defense capability is enhanced. To investigate whether intensity rating values show consistency across time in statistical significance, this study collected 543 isoseismal lines for 216 earthquakes on the Tibetan Plateau from 1960 to 2020. Taking intensity prediction equations (IPEs) as a reference, statistical tests of the residuals indicate that there is temporal variation in intensity rating values, which is inconsistent with the default assumption that intensity rating values are consistent for different time periods when developing IPEs. Therefore, we analyze the characteristics of intensity rating values by statistical tests and investigate the mechanism by which the temporal variation in intensity rating values affects IPEs by residual decomposition. The results show that despite the temporal variation in intensity rating values, they can still be used to develop IPEs, and that temporal variability can be reduced by adjustment. Finally, we obtain the regression process of IPEs based on the partially nonergodic assumption considering the temporal variation in intensity rating values, and perform a case study, using the Tibetan Plateau as an example.
期刊介绍:
The Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, commonly referred to as BSSA, (ISSN 0037-1106) is the premier journal of advanced research in earthquake seismology and related disciplines. It first appeared in 1911 and became a bimonthly in 1963. Each issue is composed of scientific papers on the various aspects of seismology, including investigation of specific earthquakes, theoretical and observational studies of seismic waves, inverse methods for determining the structure of the Earth or the dynamics of the earthquake source, seismometry, earthquake hazard and risk estimation, seismotectonics, and earthquake engineering. Special issues focus on important earthquakes or rapidly changing topics in seismology. BSSA is published by the Seismological Society of America.