凯恩斯预期、认知权威与经济学多元论:正常与异常时期的安慰剂与反安慰剂效应

IF 2 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Ellen D Russell
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引用次数: 0

摘要

杰出的经济学家可能会提供专家指导,帮助公众形成预期。本文使用凯恩斯的传统预期形成理论和外行认识论,认为杰出的经济学家可能有足够的“认知权威”来鼓励自我实现的“安慰剂/反安慰剂效应”,这意味着与杰出经济学家的指导一致的广泛和自信的期望鼓励了促进这些经济学家预测的经济结果的经济行为。本文考察了经济学学科中多元主义的边缘性,因为它支持这些自我实现的动力,因为它:(i)有助于公众识别和赋予杰出经济学家知识权威的能力,(ii)鼓励杰出经济学家的预期指导充分趋同,使公众能够在此指导的基础上采用连贯和自信的预期,(iii)促进这种预期指导的公众传播。结论考虑了凯恩斯主义的“异常时期”(如明斯基的预期情景),这可能会使著名经济学家(也许是一般的专家经济学知识)的认知权威失去信誉,并考虑了这些情况对学科多元化的一些影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Keynesian expectations, epistemic authority and pluralism in economics: placebo and nocebo effects in normal and abnormal times
Abstract Prominent economists may provide expert guidance to assist the public in forming expectations. Using both Keynes’ theory of conventional expectations formation and lay epistemology, this article argues that prominent economists may have sufficient ‘epistemic authority’ to encourage a self-fulfilling ‘placebo/nocebo effect’, meaning that widely and confidently-held expectations congruent with prominent economists’ guidance encourage economic behaviours that promote the economic outcomes predicted by these economists. This article examines the peripherality of pluralism in the economics discipline as supporting these self-fulfilling dynamics insofar as it: (i) contributes to the public’s capacity to identify and attribute epistemic authority to prominent economists, (ii) encourages sufficient convergence of prominent economists’ expectational guidance that the public can adopt coherent and confident expectations based on this guidance and (iii) facilitates the public dissemination of this expectational guidance. The conclusion considers Keynesian ‘abnormal times’ (such as a Minskian expectational scenario) that may discredit the epistemic authority of prominent economists (and perhaps expert economic knowledge in general) and considers some implications of these circumstances for disciplinary pluralism.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.30
自引率
5.00%
发文量
54
期刊介绍: The Cambridge Journal of Economics, founded in 1977 in the traditions of Marx, Keynes, Kalecki, Joan Robinson and Kaldor, provides a forum for theoretical, applied, policy and methodological research into social and economic issues. Its focus includes: •the organisation of social production and the distribution of its product •the causes and consequences of gender, ethnic, class and national inequities •inflation and unemployment •the changing forms and boundaries of markets and planning •uneven development and world market instability •globalisation and international integration.
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