{"title":"凯恩斯预期、认知权威与经济学多元论:正常与异常时期的安慰剂与反安慰剂效应","authors":"Ellen D Russell","doi":"10.1093/cje/bead001","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Prominent economists may provide expert guidance to assist the public in forming expectations. Using both Keynes’ theory of conventional expectations formation and lay epistemology, this article argues that prominent economists may have sufficient ‘epistemic authority’ to encourage a self-fulfilling ‘placebo/nocebo effect’, meaning that widely and confidently-held expectations congruent with prominent economists’ guidance encourage economic behaviours that promote the economic outcomes predicted by these economists. This article examines the peripherality of pluralism in the economics discipline as supporting these self-fulfilling dynamics insofar as it: (i) contributes to the public’s capacity to identify and attribute epistemic authority to prominent economists, (ii) encourages sufficient convergence of prominent economists’ expectational guidance that the public can adopt coherent and confident expectations based on this guidance and (iii) facilitates the public dissemination of this expectational guidance. The conclusion considers Keynesian ‘abnormal times’ (such as a Minskian expectational scenario) that may discredit the epistemic authority of prominent economists (and perhaps expert economic knowledge in general) and considers some implications of these circumstances for disciplinary pluralism.","PeriodicalId":48156,"journal":{"name":"Cambridge Journal of Economics","volume":"77 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Keynesian expectations, epistemic authority and pluralism in economics: placebo and nocebo effects in normal and abnormal times\",\"authors\":\"Ellen D Russell\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/cje/bead001\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract Prominent economists may provide expert guidance to assist the public in forming expectations. Using both Keynes’ theory of conventional expectations formation and lay epistemology, this article argues that prominent economists may have sufficient ‘epistemic authority’ to encourage a self-fulfilling ‘placebo/nocebo effect’, meaning that widely and confidently-held expectations congruent with prominent economists’ guidance encourage economic behaviours that promote the economic outcomes predicted by these economists. This article examines the peripherality of pluralism in the economics discipline as supporting these self-fulfilling dynamics insofar as it: (i) contributes to the public’s capacity to identify and attribute epistemic authority to prominent economists, (ii) encourages sufficient convergence of prominent economists’ expectational guidance that the public can adopt coherent and confident expectations based on this guidance and (iii) facilitates the public dissemination of this expectational guidance. The conclusion considers Keynesian ‘abnormal times’ (such as a Minskian expectational scenario) that may discredit the epistemic authority of prominent economists (and perhaps expert economic knowledge in general) and considers some implications of these circumstances for disciplinary pluralism.\",\"PeriodicalId\":48156,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Cambridge Journal of Economics\",\"volume\":\"77 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-03-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Cambridge Journal of Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bead001\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Cambridge Journal of Economics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bead001","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Keynesian expectations, epistemic authority and pluralism in economics: placebo and nocebo effects in normal and abnormal times
Abstract Prominent economists may provide expert guidance to assist the public in forming expectations. Using both Keynes’ theory of conventional expectations formation and lay epistemology, this article argues that prominent economists may have sufficient ‘epistemic authority’ to encourage a self-fulfilling ‘placebo/nocebo effect’, meaning that widely and confidently-held expectations congruent with prominent economists’ guidance encourage economic behaviours that promote the economic outcomes predicted by these economists. This article examines the peripherality of pluralism in the economics discipline as supporting these self-fulfilling dynamics insofar as it: (i) contributes to the public’s capacity to identify and attribute epistemic authority to prominent economists, (ii) encourages sufficient convergence of prominent economists’ expectational guidance that the public can adopt coherent and confident expectations based on this guidance and (iii) facilitates the public dissemination of this expectational guidance. The conclusion considers Keynesian ‘abnormal times’ (such as a Minskian expectational scenario) that may discredit the epistemic authority of prominent economists (and perhaps expert economic knowledge in general) and considers some implications of these circumstances for disciplinary pluralism.
期刊介绍:
The Cambridge Journal of Economics, founded in 1977 in the traditions of Marx, Keynes, Kalecki, Joan Robinson and Kaldor, provides a forum for theoretical, applied, policy and methodological research into social and economic issues. Its focus includes: •the organisation of social production and the distribution of its product •the causes and consequences of gender, ethnic, class and national inequities •inflation and unemployment •the changing forms and boundaries of markets and planning •uneven development and world market instability •globalisation and international integration.