博弈论统计与安全的任意有效推理

IF 3.9 1区 数学 Q1 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY
Aaditya Ramdas, Peter Grünwald, Vladimir Vovk, Glenn Shafer
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引用次数: 0

摘要

安全的随时有效推理(SAVI)提供了统计证据和确定性过程的度量,用于测试和估计的置信度序列,在所有停止时间都保持有效,适应对累积数据的连续监测和分析,以及出于任何原因的可选停止或继续。这些度量主要依赖于从1开始的非负鞅的测试鞅。由于测试鞅是赌博游戏中玩家的财富过程,SAVI集中使用博弈论直觉、语言和数学。我们总结了SAVI的目标和理念,并报告了在非参数设置中测试复合假设和估计函数的最新进展。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Game-Theoretic Statistics and Safe Anytime-Valid Inference
Safe anytime-valid inference (SAVI) provides measures of statistical evidence and certainty—e-processes for testing and confidence sequences for estimation—that remain valid at all stopping times, accommodating continuous monitoring and analysis of accumulating data and optional stopping or continuation for any reason. These measures crucially rely on test martingales, which are nonnegative martingales starting at one. Since a test martingale is the wealth process of a player in a betting game, SAVI centrally employs game-theoretic intuition, language and mathematics. We summarize the SAVI goals and philosophy, and report recent advances in testing composite hypotheses and estimating functionals in nonparametric settings.
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来源期刊
Statistical Science
Statistical Science 数学-统计学与概率论
CiteScore
6.50
自引率
1.80%
发文量
40
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The central purpose of Statistical Science is to convey the richness, breadth and unity of the field by presenting the full range of contemporary statistical thought at a moderate technical level, accessible to the wide community of practitioners, researchers and students of statistics and probability.
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