Aaditya Ramdas, Peter Grünwald, Vladimir Vovk, Glenn Shafer
{"title":"博弈论统计与安全的任意有效推理","authors":"Aaditya Ramdas, Peter Grünwald, Vladimir Vovk, Glenn Shafer","doi":"10.1214/23-sts894","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Safe anytime-valid inference (SAVI) provides measures of statistical evidence and certainty—e-processes for testing and confidence sequences for estimation—that remain valid at all stopping times, accommodating continuous monitoring and analysis of accumulating data and optional stopping or continuation for any reason. These measures crucially rely on test martingales, which are nonnegative martingales starting at one. Since a test martingale is the wealth process of a player in a betting game, SAVI centrally employs game-theoretic intuition, language and mathematics. We summarize the SAVI goals and philosophy, and report recent advances in testing composite hypotheses and estimating functionals in nonparametric settings.","PeriodicalId":51172,"journal":{"name":"Statistical Science","volume":"105 10","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Game-Theoretic Statistics and Safe Anytime-Valid Inference\",\"authors\":\"Aaditya Ramdas, Peter Grünwald, Vladimir Vovk, Glenn Shafer\",\"doi\":\"10.1214/23-sts894\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Safe anytime-valid inference (SAVI) provides measures of statistical evidence and certainty—e-processes for testing and confidence sequences for estimation—that remain valid at all stopping times, accommodating continuous monitoring and analysis of accumulating data and optional stopping or continuation for any reason. These measures crucially rely on test martingales, which are nonnegative martingales starting at one. Since a test martingale is the wealth process of a player in a betting game, SAVI centrally employs game-theoretic intuition, language and mathematics. We summarize the SAVI goals and philosophy, and report recent advances in testing composite hypotheses and estimating functionals in nonparametric settings.\",\"PeriodicalId\":51172,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Statistical Science\",\"volume\":\"105 10\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-11-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Statistical Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1214/23-sts894\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"数学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Statistical Science","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1214/23-sts894","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Game-Theoretic Statistics and Safe Anytime-Valid Inference
Safe anytime-valid inference (SAVI) provides measures of statistical evidence and certainty—e-processes for testing and confidence sequences for estimation—that remain valid at all stopping times, accommodating continuous monitoring and analysis of accumulating data and optional stopping or continuation for any reason. These measures crucially rely on test martingales, which are nonnegative martingales starting at one. Since a test martingale is the wealth process of a player in a betting game, SAVI centrally employs game-theoretic intuition, language and mathematics. We summarize the SAVI goals and philosophy, and report recent advances in testing composite hypotheses and estimating functionals in nonparametric settings.
期刊介绍:
The central purpose of Statistical Science is to convey the richness, breadth and unity of the field by presenting the full range of contemporary statistical thought at a moderate technical level, accessible to the wide community of practitioners, researchers and students of statistics and probability.