基于数据同化的外辐射带电子通量预测模型

IF 2.9 3区 地球科学
Yuan Lei, Xing Cao, BinBin Ni, Song Fu, TaoRong Luo, XiaoYu Wang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于辐射带电子可能对空间轨道卫星的安全构成潜在威胁,因此建立可靠的模型来预测外辐射带电子通量的高动态变化具有重要意义。在本研究中,我们建立了一个基于数据同化方法的辐射带电子通量预测模型,该模型是基于范艾伦探针测量和三维辐射带数值模拟相结合的。我们的预测模型在电子能量(0.1 ~ 5.0 MeV)和俯仰角(5°~ 90°)的大范围内,以高时间分辨率(1小时)和0.25 L的空间分辨率覆盖整个外辐射带。在此基础上,预测了强磁暴发生后1、2、3天的逐时电子通量,并对预测效果进行了评价。该模型能较好地预测辐射带电子的风暴时演变,预测效率高达~ 0.8-1。在L = ~3.25 ~ 4.5时,对~ 0.3-3 MeV电子的预测效果最好,随着俯仰角的增大,预测的L越高,能量越低。结果表明,所建立的预测模型是预测外辐射带电子通量时空变化的有力工具,具有重要的科学意义和实际应用价值。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A data assimilation-based forecast model of outer radiation belt electron fluxes
Because radiation belt electrons can pose a potential threat to the safety of satellites orbiting in space, it is of great importance to develop a reliable model that can predict the highly dynamic variations in outer radiation belt electron fluxes. In the present study, we develop a forecast model of radiation belt electron fluxes based on the data assimilation method, in terms of Van Allen Probe measurements combined with three-dimensional radiation belt numerical simulations. Our forecast model can cover the entire outer radiation belt with a high temporal resolution (1 hour) and a spatial resolution of 0.25 L over a wide range of both electron energy (0.1–5.0 MeV) and pitch angle (5°–90°). On the basis of this model, we forecast hourly electron fluxes for the next 1, 2, and 3 days during an intense geomagnetic storm and evaluate the corresponding prediction performance. Our model can reasonably predict the storm-time evolution of radiation belt electrons with high prediction efficiency (up to ~0.8–1). The best prediction performance is found for ~0.3–3 MeV electrons at L = ~3.25–4.5, which extends to higher L and lower energies with increasing pitch angle. Our results demonstrate that the forecast model developed can be a powerful tool to predict the spatiotemporal changes in outer radiation belt electron fluxes, and the model has both scientific significance and practical implications.
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来源期刊
Earth and Planetary Physics
Earth and Planetary Physics GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
自引率
17.20%
发文量
174
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