欧洲冠军联赛的俱乐部系数:是时候转向基于elo的公式了

IF 1.9 4区教育学 Q2 SPORT SCIENCES

International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI:10.1080/24748668.2023.2274221

László Csató

{"title":"欧洲冠军联赛的俱乐部系数:是时候转向基于elo的公式了","authors":"László Csató","doi":"10.1080/24748668.2023.2274221","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"One of the most popular club football tournaments, the UEFA Champions League, will see a fundamental reform from the 2024/25 season: the traditional group stage will be replaced by one league where each of the 36 teams plays eight matches. To guarantee that the opponents of the clubs are of the same strength in the new design, it is crucial to forecast the performance of the teams before the tournament as well as possible. This paper investigates whether the currently used rating of the teams, the UEFA club coefficient, can be improved by taking the games played in the national leagues into account. According to our logistic regression models, a variant of the Elo method provides a higher accuracy in terms of explanatory power in the Champions League matches. The Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) is encouraged to follow the example of the FIFA World Ranking and reform the calculation of the club coefficients in order to avoid unbalanced schedules in the novel tournament format of the Champions League.","PeriodicalId":14248,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport","volume":"41 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Club coefficients in the UEFA Champions League: Time for shift to an Elo-based formula\",\"authors\":\"László Csató\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/24748668.2023.2274221\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"One of the most popular club football tournaments, the UEFA Champions League, will see a fundamental reform from the 2024/25 season: the traditional group stage will be replaced by one league where each of the 36 teams plays eight matches. To guarantee that the opponents of the clubs are of the same strength in the new design, it is crucial to forecast the performance of the teams before the tournament as well as possible. This paper investigates whether the currently used rating of the teams, the UEFA club coefficient, can be improved by taking the games played in the national leagues into account. According to our logistic regression models, a variant of the Elo method provides a higher accuracy in terms of explanatory power in the Champions League matches. The Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) is encouraged to follow the example of the FIFA World Ranking and reform the calculation of the club coefficients in order to avoid unbalanced schedules in the novel tournament format of the Champions League.\",\"PeriodicalId\":14248,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport\",\"volume\":\"41 4\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-11-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2023.2274221\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"教育学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"SPORT SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2023.2274221","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"教育学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"SPORT SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

最受欢迎的俱乐部足球比赛之一，欧洲冠军联赛，将从2024/25赛季开始进行根本性的改革:传统的小组赛阶段将被一个联赛取代，36支球队每支球队打8场比赛。为了保证俱乐部的对手在新设计中具有相同的实力，在比赛前尽可能地预测球队的表现是至关重要的。本文探讨了在考虑国家队比赛的情况下，是否可以提高目前使用的球队评级——欧足联俱乐部系数。根据我们的逻辑回归模型，Elo方法的一种变体在欧冠比赛的解释力方面提供了更高的准确性。鼓励欧洲足球协会联盟(UEFA)效仿国际足联世界排名，改革俱乐部系数的计算，以避免在欧洲冠军联赛的新比赛形式中出现赛程不平衡的情况。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Club coefficients in the UEFA Champions League: Time for shift to an Elo-based formula

One of the most popular club football tournaments, the UEFA Champions League, will see a fundamental reform from the 2024/25 season: the traditional group stage will be replaced by one league where each of the 36 teams plays eight matches. To guarantee that the opponents of the clubs are of the same strength in the new design, it is crucial to forecast the performance of the teams before the tournament as well as possible. This paper investigates whether the currently used rating of the teams, the UEFA club coefficient, can be improved by taking the games played in the national leagues into account. According to our logistic regression models, a variant of the Elo method provides a higher accuracy in terms of explanatory power in the Champions League matches. The Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) is encouraged to follow the example of the FIFA World Ranking and reform the calculation of the club coefficients in order to avoid unbalanced schedules in the novel tournament format of the Champions League.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport Health Professions-Physical Therapy, Sports Therapy and Rehabilitation

CiteScore

4.40

自引率

4.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport aims to present current original research into sports performance. In so doing, the journal contributes to our general knowledge of sports performance making findings available to a wide audience of academics and practitioners.