希腊凯法利尼亚转换断裂带(KTFZ)的长期重复模式和应力传递:地震危险性评估的意义

IF 2.4 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Christos Kourouklas, Eleftheria Papadimitriou, Vasileios Karakostas
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引用次数: 0

摘要

通过考虑合并74年(1948-2022)演化应力场,对希腊凯法利尼亚转换断裂带(KTFZ)大地震(Mw≥6.0)的重复模式进行了研究。应用泊松、泊松结合静应力变化(泊松+ ΔCFF)、布朗通过时间(BPT)和布朗通过时间结合静应力变化(BPT + ΔCFF) 4种地震发生模型,对研究区7个断裂段的近特征地震发生概率进行了估计。使用基于物理的地震矩率守恒方法估计平均重复时间Tr。结果显示,随故障参数的不同,变化很大。将压力状态纳入Tr会导致晚期和延迟复发模式。未来10年、20年和30年的发生概率估计表明,在所有模型中,最有可能破裂的断裂段是Paliki北断裂段。总的来说,产状概率结合断层段的应力状态,强调了研究区地震矩率高。时间依赖模型(BPT, BPT + ΔCFF)的应用导致相关地震危险性的显著增加或减少。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Long-Term Recurrence Pattern and Stress Transfer along the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ), Greece: Implications in Seismic Hazard Evaluation
An effort is exerted to investigate the recurrence pattern of large earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6.0) in the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ), Greece, by considering the incorporation of the 74-year (1948–2022) evolving stress field. Four earthquake occurrence models—the Poisson, Poisson with the incorporation of the static stress changes (Poisson + ΔCFF), Brownian passage time (BPT) and Brownian passage time with the incorporation of the static stress changes (BPT + ΔCFF)—have been applied to estimate the occurrence probabilities of nearly characteristic earthquakes for the seven fault segments of the study area. The mean recurrence time, Tr, is estimated using the physics-based seismic moment rate conservation method. The results show large variability depending upon fault parameters. Incorporating the state of stress into Tr results in both advanced and delayed recurrence patterns. The occurrence probability estimates for the next 10, 20 and 30 years indicate that the fault segment most likely to be ruptured is the Paliki North fault segment in all models. Overall, the occurrence probabilities, combined with the state of stress along the fault segments, emphasize the high seismic moment rate of the study area. The application of time-dependent models (BPT, BPT + ΔCFF) resulted in significant increases or decreases in the associated seismic hazard.
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来源期刊
Geosciences (Switzerland)
Geosciences (Switzerland) Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (all)
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
7.40%
发文量
395
审稿时长
11 weeks
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