新冠疫情期间拉丁美洲劳动力市场和宏观经济动态:数字采用政策的作用

Alan Finkelstein Shapiro, Victoria Nuguer, Santiago Novoa Gomez
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文采用企业进入和失业的框架,分析了降低企业采用数字技术成本的政策如何影响拉丁美洲(LA)的劳动力市场和经济复苏,其中受薪企业可以采用数字技术,就业和企业结构体现了LA经济的关键特征。该模型以墨西哥为例,复制了新冠肺炎经济衰退开始时及其之后劳动力市场和产出的反应,包括劳动力参与和非正规就业的动态。在经济衰退的低谷期,政策导致的数字技术成本的永久性降低,将促进GDP、总就业和劳动收入的复苏,并导致正式就业比例比无政策情景更大的扩张。从长期来看,经济表现出总就业减少,但GDP和劳动收入水平更高,平均企业生产率更高,正式就业份额更大,失业率略低。最后,作为一个副作用,该政策加剧了正式和非正式劳动收入之间的差异,无论是在经济从新冠肺炎衰退中复苏的过程中,还是从长期来看。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Labor Market and Macroeconomic Dynamics in Latin America amid COVID: The Role of Digital-Adoption Policies
Abstract This paper analyzes how a policy that lowers firm digital-adoption costs shapes the labor-market and economic recovery from COVID-19 in Latin America (LA) using a framework with firm entry and unemployment, where salaried firms can adopt digital technologies and the employment and firm structure embodies key features of LA economies. Using Mexico as a case study, the model replicates the response of the labor market and output at the onset of the COVID recession and in its aftermath, including the dynamics of labor-force participation and informal employment. A policy-induced permanent reduction in the cost of adopting digital technologies at the trough of the recession bolsters the recovery of GDP, total employment, and labor income, and leads to a larger expansion in the share of formal employment compared to a no-policy scenario. In the long run, the economy exhibits a reduction in total employment but higher levels of GDP and labor income, greater average firm productivity, a larger formal employment share, and a marginally lower unemployment rate. Finally, as a side effect, the policy exacerbates the differential between formal and informal labor income, both as the economy recovers from the COVID recession and in the long run.
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